Archives,
2007

January 2, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Lula begins second term

Brazilian President Luis Inacio da Silva was inaugurated for a second time yesterday, as the security situation in his country continues to deteriorate. Last week 19 people died as narcotics-trade gangs set fire to buses and launched attacks on several police stations in Rio de Janeiro. In response, the new governor of that state, Sergio Cabral, said he would welcome Brazilian army troops to put down the gang uprising. Da Silva declared "This barbarity that happened in Rio de Janeiro can't be treated like common crime. It's terrorism and must be dealt with by the strong hand of the Brazilian state." See CNN.com. Sao Paulo suffered a similar wave of gang warfare last May. The spread of such violence across the country is very disturbing, suggesting it is part of an orchestrated campaign. It's ironic that the leftist populist Da Silva has been put in the position of having to crack down to restore order. He renewed his vows to spend more federal money to lift people out of poverty, but it may not be enough. Or, it may be that da Silva's promises have raised unrealistic hopes for immediate socio-economic improvement, creating bitter disappointment. Although successful in economic terms overall, income distribution in Brazil is highly skewed, and class envy is high.

January 3, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Mexican army heads to Tijuana

The Mexican government is sending 3,300 soldiers and federal police to fight narcotraffic gangs in Tijuana, where some of the most vicious gang violence has taken place in recent years. President Felipe Calderon, who was inaugurated just one month ago, had previously sent 7,000 troops to deal with gangs in the western state of Michoacan, his home. See CNN.com. The border near San Diego is already very tense because of the clampdown on illegal immigration by the United States; thousands of would-be Mexican emigrants are trapped and desperate. This deployment of forces happens to coincide with a similar situation taking place in Brazil. The challenge will be to avoid exposing the troops to the temptation of bribes offered by narcotraffickers, which is the apparent reason for repeated cases of uniformed Mexican security personnel assisting with the smuggling of humans and drugs across the border.

January 4, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Power struggle in Venezuela?

The rising gang violence that has emanated from prisons in Central America, Brazil, and Mexico over the past year or two may be spreading to Venezuela. In the western state of Lara, a total of 22 prisoners were killed in gang fights since Monday, and in response Hugo Chavez fired his Interior and Justice Minister Jesse Chacon. There are hints of a power struggle behind the scenes, however, because Chavez also dismissed Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel, who has played a prominent role in defending Chavez in the diplomatic arena. "Rangel will be replaced by Jorge Rodriguez, a Chavez ally who served as a director of the country's electoral commission during a heated 2004 recall referendum against the president." See CNN.com. The United States government has complained that Venezuela is lax in fighting drug trafficking, so this incident serves as a test of whether or not Chavez is serious about enforcing the law.

January 5, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Widespread corruption in Chile

Contrary to public perceptions, news reports over the past year or two suggest that Chile is plagued by as much corruption as are other Latin America countries. The Miami Herald has compiled a list of some of the most egregious cases of bribery and embezzlement. Late dictator Augusto Pinochet kept secret accounts worth at least $28 million in foreign banks, and several officials belonging to the Socialist Party (of which President Michelle Bachelet is a member) have been convicted of bribery or are under investigation for various kinds of financial wrongdoing. The article rightly points out that much of the problem stems from the fact that the same center-left coalition has controlled the government for the last 16 years. (Hat tip to Randy Paul.) The question is whether the revelations of government crookedness will undermine Chile's reputation as a safe place to invest money. Gaining its reputation as a haven for foreign capital did not come easy, and it would be a shame for a country that has achieved so much to squander it all away.

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More tensions on Mexican border

UPDATE: The U.S. Border Patrol reported that a team of National Guardsmen manning a border post in Arizona was forced to retreat after being fired upon and assaulted by a group from Mexico, according to azcentral.com (via Instapundit). If this is accurate, it would dispel the widespread belief that the border is sufficiently secure without a fence, or without heavy reinforcements. Further west, Mexican army troops ordered the local police in Tijuana to disarm, as they try to retake control of the city from drug traffickers. Police forces have been accused of helping the smuggling operations. See BBC.

January 7, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Prison bloodbath in El Salvador

The wave of gang-related prison violence continues to sweep across Latin America, as at least 21 prisoners died this weekend in Apanteos jail, near the city of Santa Ana in northwestern El Salvador. The uprising began on Friday, and it took hundreds of police and soldiers before the government regained control of the facility. See BBC. It can hardly be coincidental that so many Latin American countries are being challenged by narco-traffic gangs simultaneously, and it may become a threat to U.S. national security interests unless effective measures to subdue the gang activities are taken soon.

January 9, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Chavez marches toward socialism

On the eve of his third inaugural ceremonies, Hugo Chavez declared that Venezuela would nationalize the electrical and telecommunications utilities, some of which are owned by U.S. companies. This was presented as part of his campaign to transform into a socialist state. "We are in an existential moment of Venezuelan life. We're heading toward socialism, and nothing and no one can prevent it." Basically, he is striving to reverse all of the privatizations that took place in the 1990s, when the government was struggling to regain solvency. As soon as he is inaugurated again, Chavez plans to travel to Nicaragua and discuss plans with new president Daniel Ortega. Venezuela will provide resource "loans" to pay for a variety of infrastructure, health, education, agricultural, and housing projects. CNN.com

After OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza took exception to the license of Radio Caracas Television not being renewed (because it favors the opposition), Chavez called him "stupid." In response, OAS foreign ministers rallied to Insulza's support, led by Chile. As a result of these latest verbal outbursts, the stock market in Caracas dropped by nearly 19%. See El Universal. Chavez probably isn't too worried about the capital markets, figuring that he can do anything he wants with all that oil money coming in. Somehow, he is managing to sustain the momentum of radical anti-imperialist, keeping people agitated by heated words and ever-more precipitous policy changes.

Meanwhile, in the U.S.A., Joe Kennedy has been appearing on television ads for CITGO, drawing attention to the fuel oil assistance program. Too bad it's been such a mild winter so far...

January 11, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Ortega is inaugurated again

Daniel Ortega, the Sandinista leader who turned Nicaragua into a Marxist-Leninist state in the 1980s, has been inaugurated president. Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales were among the attendees. Ortega had campaigned as a moderate leftist, along the lines of Brazil's "Lula," but his inaugural speech was filled with defiant words aimed at rallying his leftist supporters, as he pledged common cause with Chavez. Ortega "has said he will respect private business and support CAFTA," and so far there is no panic among investors. See CNN.com.

Managua's La Prensa (in Spanish) had a detailed analysis of Ortega's inaugural address. He called for a "new road" for Nicaragua, saying the "neoliberal model" had failed to meet the needs of the country's poor people. He claimed that illiteracy has risen from 12% when he left office in 1990, to 35% now. He vowed to join the "Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas" created by Hugo Chavez. He did at least recognize that the DR-CAFTA free trade pact had paved the way for a major increase in Nicaraguan exports, and he tried to ally fears of the business sector. Finally, he made an implicit plea to would-be land squatters to refrain from invading land parcels, saying that institutional mechanisms should be created to redistribute land more evenly.

So what is Ortega really up to? Like Peru's Alan Garcia, I'm sure he is older and wiser, having learned some hard lessons from the 1980s, so he is probably not as radical as he used to be. Like all politicians, he must appeal to his "base" first and foremost, and he knows that he can gain attention and negotiating leverage by raising rhetorical hell every once in a while. Some people say that's all Hugo Chavez is really doing, but I think the ego-inflated Chavez is deadly serious about his agenda.

January 12, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Violence spreads in Bolivia

At least two people died in Cochabamba after supporters of President Evo Morales (mostly peasants) launched fierce protests to demand the resignation of Governor Gov. Manfred Reyes Villa. Gov. Reyes is a former mayor of the city and was a right-wing candidate for president under the "New Republican Force" in 2005. This represents an escalation in the mortal showdown between Morales and the poltical establishment in Bolivia, which currently wields power primarily at the provincial level. See CNN.com. The separatist movements that began in Santa Cruz last year spread to other provinces last month, and Morales has decided to unleash his mobs to fight back and attain complete contro of the country. At issue is widespread resistance to the proposed constitutional revision, which Morales justifies in terms of giving power back to the Indian people, but which would remove almost all restraints on power wielded by the central government in La Paz. In other words, it is the same thing Hugo Chavez is trying to do in Venezuela. According to bolivia.com (in Spanish), the roadblocks put up by the demonstrators have been removed. This situation resembles what has been happening in Oaxaca, Mexico for the past eight months, as leftist demonstrators try to force the incumbent governor to resign.

Latin America country archives

I have upgraded the functionality of the Latin America 2006 archives page by creating separate annual archive pages for each country. [This new archive retrieval system] picks blog posts based on the occurrence of the name near the top of each blog post, so it will omit posts in which the country was mentioned toward the latter part of the blog post. [In fact, for some smaller countries, there may be zero posts for the entire year!] Still, it's a good way to quickly find out the most important things that happened in each country on a year-by-year basis. Country archive pages for 2005 will be coming soon.

January 13, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Isabel Peron is arrested in Spain

The former Argentine President Isabel Peron was placed under arrest for three hours in Madrid, as part of the Argentine government's investigation into human rights abuses of that era. She may be extradited back to her home country, after 26 years in exile. She succeeded her husband Juan Peron after he died in 1974, but failed to cope with rising political violence and inflation, so the generals decided to depose her in March 1976. It is possible that she bears some responsibility for the infamous "Dirty War," because she signed a decree that authorized a brutal crackdown on leftist dissidents. This gave rise to the formation of the "Argentina Anticommunist Alliance," an instrument of state terror. See CNN.com. Anything Isabel did paled in comparison to the horrors that transpired after she was thrown out of office, however. Isabel was never admired as much as her husband or his first wife Evita, so there are probably not many people willing to go out of their way to defend her.

January 16, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Correa inaugurated in Ecuador

Rafael Correa took the oath of office as president of Ecuador. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Bolivia's Evo Morales, and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega were all present for the ceremonies. That makes three inaugurations in Latin America this month alone: it certainly has been a busy travel month for Latin American presidents! Also attending was Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ecuador is a minor oil producer and used to be a member of OPEC, so Iran may be trying to extend its influence in the Third World. The young (age 43) populist leader, who has a Ph.D. in Economics, calls for a "citizens' revolution," saying he wants to hold a referendum on rewriting the constitution, as has been done in Venezuela and Bolivia. He blames the traditional parties, but they problem is not that they are too strong, as he says, but that they are too weak and fragmented. The established parties do enjoy the prerogative to name judicial candidates, which seems odd by North American standards. He has attacked the Congress as a "sewer of corruption," which is a dangerous tactic given that the last three presidents of Ecuador have been removed from power by Congress. He also wants to create districts for congressmen, who are currently elected on a nationwide basis. CNN.com and the BBC.

Actually, some of Correa's criticisms may not be far off the mark, but without a strong political organization behind him, it is hard to see how he can get much done. On one hand, he does offer hope for a fresh start for his crisis-weary people. But there remains the big question of whether he will emulate pragmatism à la Brazil's da Silva, or opt for radicalism, à la Venezuela's Chavez. Like Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, the left-wing populist is straddling a precarious line between the two approaches. In terms of foreign policy, it will be very interesting to see whether Correa condemns the United States as Chavez has done. He says he will not renew the lease on a U.S. air base used for drug traffic monitoring, but he might be persuaded if the offere were sweet enough. Another question is whether he will seek friendly relations with Peru, with which a long border dispute was finally resolved a few years ago. The Ecuador page has been updated, as has the Current situation page.

January 18, 2007 [LINK / comment]

"Enabling Act" in Venezuela

In 1934 the German Parliament passed the Enabling Act granting Adolph Hitler virtually unlimited power to rule by decree, supposedly for a four-year emergency period. There was a depression at the time, and many people thought it was the best way to take swift, effective action. Those who disagreed were bullied and beaten into submission, or else murdered. The same thing is now happening in Venezuela, where the voices of dissent are being systematically squelched. (See Jan. 9.) Today the National Assembly voted in favor of a measure that would grant Hugo Chavez the power to rule by decree for 18 months. The vote was unanimous, but that doesn't mean much because the opposition boycotted the last legislative elections in 2005. Chavez says the unlimited decree power is necessary for him to carry out his "21st Century socialist revolution." After a second vote is taken next week, the measure will go into effect, and the legislators will have effectively voted themselves out of a job. See the BBC

This happens as Chavez is in Rio de Janeiro for a MERCOSUR summit meeting. Will the presidents of Argentina, Brazil, and other countries in the region express displeasure at what Chavez is doing to his country? It is indeed a moment of truth for democracy in Latin America.

January 20, 2007 [LINK / comment]

U.S. gasohol = expensive tortillas

Here is another reason to be skeptical of using ethanol made from corn to stretch our finite gasoline supplies: Rising demand for corn in the United States has caused tortilla prices to rise so much in Mexico that poor people are having a hard time making ends meet. In response, the government of Felipe Lopez signed an agreement with businesses aimed at putting a lid on the price of tortillas. He puts some of the blame on "price gouging" by wholesalers in Mexico, however, which is an unusual position for a conservative to take. See CNN.com. If only U.S. energy policy were based more on free market principles instead of arbitrary tax breaks and other gimmicks, there would be less pressure on the government of Mexico to respond to the resulting distortions by offsetting measures.

Chavez aids coca growers in Peru

This is not surprising: Hugo Chavez has been providing financial aid to Peruvian coca growers, no doubt with subversive political intentions. This was made public by Congresswoman Elsa Malpartida, one of the leaders of the coca growers movement who are gathering at a convention in the north central city of Tingo Maria attended by Defense Minister Allan Wagner. See La Republica (in Spanish).

January 23, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Mexico extradites narcos

The Mexican government took a bold step in its recent offensive against the narcotics mafia on Saturday, extraditing four drug traffickers to the United States. The most important of them was Osiel Cardenas Gullen, boss of the Gulf cartel. The police and government agencies are so rife with corruption that it is often difficult to say whether they are serious about dealing with the problem. Until Mexico's Supreme Court reversed itself in November 2005, extradition of suspects facing possible life sentences or the death penalty was prohibited. At about the same time, President Calderon deployed 7,000 troops to Acapulco, which has faced terrible violence from drug traffickers over the past year, undermining the tourist industry. See Washington Post

It is gratifying that Calderon is facing up to the threat to public safety. The narcos in Mexico have tormented many towns and cities with unspeakable barbarity in recent years, including beheadings of police officers and informants. The threat to civilized life is almost on the same level as terrorism. A cooperative gesture such as this must be reciprocated in some meaningful way, and that probably means concessions on immigration policy. If so, I just hope that it is part of a broader reform initiative that leads toward greater bilateral economic cooperation, not just a short-term payback.

January 25, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Latin America ideology maps

As a fruit of my ongoing research, there is now a complete set of annual "government orientation" (as in ideology) maps on the Latin America Current Situation page, covering every year since 2000. Note that they refer to the president, not congress, so cases of divided government are not represented. In most of Latin America, the executive branch is much stronger than the legislative branch, so that is appropriate. It is remarkable that virtually the entire region has undergone a "reversal of polarity" since 2000. Four countries have remained quite steadfast, however: Mexico and Paraguay (both moderate right), Chile (moderate left), and Venezuela (far left). Ironically, there was also a reversal north of the border, but in the opposite direction!

Roll your mouse over this map to compare the ideological orientation of current governments with the orientations as of the year 2000.

A few discrepancies between these maps and information on the Latin America presidents (chronology) page have been resolved; that page has also been updated for 2007.

Uruguay vs. Argentina

The World Court has ruled in favor of Argentina in the dispute with Uruguay over the construction of a pulp mill along the Uruguay River which separates them. Environmental activists (including some NIMBYs, no doubt) have been putting up roadblocks near the town of Gualeguaychu to protest the pulp mill complex, which is owned by a Finnish company. The vote was 14 to 1, as the judges ruled that the economic harm caused by the roadblocks was not of a grievous nature. See CNN.com. The controversy first attracted world attention back in November 2005 (scroll down). The fact that the neighboring countries are at odds in spite of very similar cultural heritage and government orientation (left of center) illustrates that international conflict is more often rooted in clashes of national interest, rather than a clash of values.

Deadlock in Bolivia

Monday's Washington Post analyzed the political struggle in Bolivia, as President Evo Morales faces growing opposition to his proposed constitutional revision. The 255 members of the constituent assembly have been meeting for the last six months, but thus far they have not even resolved basic procedural issues. In the streets of Santa Cruz, Cochambamba, and other cities, meanwhile, demonstrations by radical supporters of Morales, and those who resist his agenda, have frequently turned violent. As in the case of Venezuela, high energy prices have provided a windfall for a government whose power is derived largely from its ability to deliver goods to poor people. This redistributionist agenda has sharply polarized the country, which has teetered on the brink of civil war in recent years.

Morales denied Tuesday that his government has any ties with the Basque separatist group ETA, but he did admit to meeting with some of their leaders. CNN.com

January 26, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Military crash in Ecuador

The first woman ever to serve as Defense Minister of Ecuador, Guadalupe Larriva, was killed when two helicopters collided during a ceremonial aviation show. Her daughter and several military officers were among the victims. Larriva had served as leader of the Socialist Party of Ecuador, one of several small leftist parties in the fragmented party system of Ecuador. Recently inaugurated President Correa ordered an investigation into what caused the French-designed Gazelle helicopters to collide. See CNN.com. From that article I learned that the name of the new vice president is Lenin Moreno! I wonder if his parents were leftists?

January 29, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Protest roadblock in Bolivia

A citizens group in the town of Camiri in south-east Bolivia has blockaded the road between Santa Cruz and Paraguay, protesting that President Morales decrees regarding the natural gas have not gone far enough. The blockade is part of a general strike in the town, and is of of indefinite duration. The protesters want the state oil firm Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales de Bolivia to be "refounded," meaning that all hydrocarban properties would be fully nationalized. On Friday, Juan Carlos Ortiz, the head of YPFB, resigned because of a smear campaign being waged against him, part of a dispute over policy. See BBC and El Diario (in Spanish, no permalink). To me, this seems like a staged event designed by supporters of Morales to make him seem like a reasonable centrist leader holding the country together.

Bolivian-born Miguel Centellas, who has been too busy to blog lately (!), posted a detailed analysis of the situation in Bolivia. [It seems that Morales has alienated an even bigger share of the population by granting recognition to an Aymara Indian paramilitary group called the "Ponchos Rojos." Dumb, dumb, dumb. It's as if he were inviting the political establishment to launch a coup against him.]

January 30, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Mobs occupy Ecuador Congress

A large number of supporters of new President Rafael Correa pushed their way into the chambers of Ecuador's Congress today, showing that they won't put up with any foot-dragging by the political establishment. Correa wants to convene a people's assembly to rewrite the constitution, just as Chavez did in Venezuela, and Morales is trying to do in Bolivia. When the crowds of protesters became violent, the police decided it was better to evacuate the legislators than risk bloodshed. Correa later said he "regretted" those actions by his supporters. Oddly, his party did not run any candidate in the elections last year. See BBC. It is hard to imagine that a highly educated leader such as Correa would be willing to subject his country to chaos just to get his agenda passed, but that seems to be what is happening. Whether the escalation is at his behest, or whether other subversive forces (based in Caracas?) are behind the tumult, it is clear that Ecuador is headed toward a showdown very soon. My original impression that Correa would sober up and tone down the inflammatory rhetoric after assuming office was apparently mistaken.

January 31, 2007 [LINK / comment]

Chavez becomes dictator pro tem

Two weeks after a preliminary vote, the National Assembly voted to definitively confer upon President Hugo Chavez almost unlimited powers to rule by decree for the next 18 months. The rationale is that such power is necessary to complete the transition to a "socialist" society, even though Chavez's party has had a virtual monopoly on legislative power ever since the opposition boycotted the 2005 elections. This surrender of power by the legislative branch exemplifies the common attitude in Latin America, on both the left and right, that the only way to get things done is for a strong leader to take charge. As a result of this grab for power and what it portends, thousands of middle and upper class Venezuelans are already fleeing to Spain, the United States, and other safe havens. Not to worry, though: "Officials say he has no intention of turning Venezuela into a communist state, arguing that freedom of speech and religion will all be safe." (Then why are they refusing to renew licenses to broadcasters who oppose Chavez?) Nationalization of oil properties owned by Exxon, BP, and Chevron is expected in coming months, and that will start a real firestorm as American stockholders get hit in the pocketbook. The new U.S. ambassador to the U.N., John Negroponte, warned that Chavez's "behaviour is threatening to democracies in the region." That's putting it mildly. See BBC. I was a bit surprised to learn that they are actually calling the measure an "enabling law," harking back to Hitlerian Germany in 1933, as I noted on Jan. 18.

Randy Paul believes that Brazil's need for Bolivian natural gas will constrain Lula's objection to Chavez's assault on democracy in the region. He also blames the victims for the disgraceful turn of events in Venezuela: "The opposition to Chavez bears a fair share of the responsibility for the state of affairs. The opposition's boycott of the congressional elections in 2005 greased the skids for Chavez's consolidation of power." That is in part true as a factual statement, but represents a terrible moral judgement, in essence excusing evil.

Back in the Land of Liberty, meanwhile, Joe Kennedy keeps plugging the CITGO reduced-price heating oil program courtesy of "our friends in Venezuela." Columnist Froma Harrop (as published in today's News Virginian) opines that Kennedy "is to be praised" for promoting this scheme of Chavez, a transparent attempt to subvert our society. Now there's a contrarian pundit! She poo-poos the idea that Chavez poses a real threat to regional security, portraying him as nothing more than a buffoonish clown. Well, I too have noted that aspect of his bizarre personality, comparing him to Mussolini, but the instability he is already unleashing in nearby countries -- Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and possibly Mexico -- leave no doubt that he already is a serious threat. Ms. Harrop suggests that Chavez will lose power as soon as oil prices head back down. She does not know what she is talking about.