July 3, 2009 [LINK / comment]

McDonnell campaign fires up

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell has issued a bold challenge to his Democratic rival Creigh Deeds: participate in a series of ten debates all across Virginia. It is an unprecedented idea, and will keep the Democrats under pressure to defend their agenda in a setting where reasonable discourse -- rather than cheap shot sound bites -- prevails. I remain very encouraged that McDonnell knows the political landscape in Virginia and is determined to win over independent voters. He is keeping busy with campaign appearances, and TV ads are continuing at a good clip. Here in the Valley, stalwart Republican Party loyalist Steve Kijak is taking the lead in spreading the word via campaign road signs. As the Fourth of July weekend approaches, things are looking up for the Republican ticket. Well, almost.

I hate to mention this, but I feel it's my duty: About two weeks ago, Chris Green wrote that "McDonnell is running as a Democrat on the Tax issue," based on nothing more than Washington Times editorial that criticized McDonnell for not signing Grover Norquist's infamous anti-tax-increase pledge, which they say "is a guaranteed vote-getter." Well, there's no doubt that it picks up some votes, but it almost certainly loses many more votes than it gains. Has anyone been paying attention to election results in the last few years since Norquist intensified his guerrilla campaign against independent-minded Republican legislators? Kudos to Bob McDonnell for recognizing that the political winds are changing.

Virginia is one of the most business-friendly states in the country, and undermining the pro-business candidate at a time when the pro-business party is riven by deep factionalism, and when the very survival of American private business is being menaced by an onslaught of government regulation, is inexcusably irresponsible. It's time to put an end to sniping at the good guys!

And just for the record, Grover Norquist, as head of Americans for Tax Reform, is the original author of the regrettable trend toward "bitter nastiness and partisanship" in state politics, in Virginia and elsewhere. See my June 2007 blog post on him, in the midst of the epochal Sayre vs. Hanger primary race. I noticed that Norquist's "Taxpayer Protection Pledge" has been deleted moved to a new page.

Franken is the winner

We've been expecting this news for a long time, but it's still awfully hard to swallow: Al Franken has been declared the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota against incumbent Norm Coleman. The margin of victory: 312 votes. According to politico.com, "a new national poll shows that 44 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of the former comedian and liberal radio host." (Maybe they are confusing him with his alter ego, Stuart Smalley. ) Franken is a lot like his arch-enemy Rush Limbaugh, but not as successful in talk radio. Will an acerbic, smarter-than-thou comedian find success in the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate, where deference and collegiality are the watchwords? We'll see.

Now President Obama has his 60-seat Senate supermajority, unless some of the Democrats start demanding favors to get that crucial 60th vote. Because of ill health, moreover, neither Sen. Ted Kennedy nor Sen. Robert Byrd have been able to carry out their senatorial duties lately.

Unlike Franken, Minnesotans are considered very polite and self-effacing, almost painfully so. That's what makes the social satire of Garrison Keillor (the genial genius behind "Prairie Home Companion") so hilarious. Too bad he's a Democrat too.

Press gets mad at Obama

As Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and the George Bushes could tell (or could have told) you, when Helen Thomas gets her dander up, you know you're in trouble. At a press conference a couple days ago, some members of the White House press corps took exception to President Obama's phoney-baloney stage-managed "public forums" that are being used to promote his health care nationalization reform. It was quite an amusing sideshow to the usual fawning adulation that Obama usually gets from the Mainstream Media. Too Conservative noticed this little journalistic spat as well. Perhaps more of the conformist liberal reporters will wise up one of these days, as Bernard Goldberg (ex-CBS) and John Stoessel (ABC) have. When will they realize that they are becoming propaganda pawns for the Obama administration?

Brief blog hiatus

To my immense relief, the delightfully honest and thoughtful Megan Rhodes has not disappeared from the blogosphere. It was just a technical adjustment that was more troublesome than expected. Well, I can relate to that. I have noticed that some other Virginia bloggers such as Bad Rose have virtually given up on their blogs and are now devoting full-time attention to Facebook. I'm having a very hard time keeping up with all that...

July 3, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Stadium groundbreaking in Miami

Great news from Mike Zurawski: "Construction on the Marlins new stadium started yesterday. I can't believe it. Its a miracle." Yes, sports fans, it's true: the bulldozers and road graders are busily excavating the land where the Orange Bowl used to stand, in preparation for work on the foundation It almost didn't happen, however, beause of a "last-minute $6 million shortfall." See MLB.com. The 37,000-seat retractable-roof stadium is expected to be completed by the 2012 season. They'll have to keep a pretty good pace to make that deadline. This takes some of the sting out of the final demolition of Tiger Stadium.

Outfield trigonometry

Motivated in part by recent controversies over outfield measurements, such as at New Yankee Stadium, I have added a new page on "Outfield Trigonometry", with an explanation about power alley measurements and loads of formulas and data tables you probably never thought you needed. It is a greatly enhanced version of a section that was formerly part of the Stadium Statistics page, which will soon be revised.

July 2, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Honduras becomes a cauldron

The clash between global and local politics in Honduras is turning into quite a spectacle, as world opinion and democratic ideals face off against an established elite class that determined to resist foreign pressure. Demonstrations both in favor of and against "Mel," as Manuel Zelaya is known, continue in Honduran cities. It is very hard to get a good idea of what is really going on. The Washington Post emphasized that the government is resorting to heavy-handed measures such as curfews to maintain order in the cities. Journalists are being told not to report news that might incite the public. The World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank both did suspended aid to Honduras, but the new leaders insist that they will be accepted in due course. Honduras is not in a good financial position to resist a cut-off of finance for very long. Several European countries have recalled their ambassadors, and the Pentagon halted joint military operations with Honduras. On a more positive note, El Salvador resumed trade ties with Honduras after a brief suspension.

The secretary general of the Organisation of American States plans to go to Honduras and demand that the deposed president be restored to office. He refuses to negotiate with the interim government, not wanting to give them legitimacy. See BBC. I can understand the desire not to reward people for usurping legal authority, but he seems to be ignoring a widespread consensus among the leadership in Honduras that Zelaya had to go. A BBC reporter named Stephen Gibbs spent some time walking the streets to get a feel for the situation, and had some anxious moments. He concluded, "things really have not changed since the heyday of Latin American coups in the 1970s and 1980s ."

See El Heraldo reports that crowds chanted, "Get out, Mel, get out, Chavez!," positioning themselves as standing up for democracy and the rule of law. The anti-Zelaya forces are angry at international condemnation of the coup, resentful of outsiders meddling in their affairs. It sounds paradoxical, but time will tell which side in this showdown is more sincere about adhering to those principles. I suspect that neither side is truly innocent.

Even though the "International Community" has come down resoundingly against the coup, I think the attitude of foreign leaders and diplomats is mainly intended to discourage would-be imitators from launching coups elsewhere in Latin America or the Third World. They may not know or really care what the actual situation is in Honduras, and whether the legal authorities who gave their blessing to the irregular change in government were justified or not.

Actually, there were two other new presidents in Latin America last month:

Panama turns right

In Panama, conservative businessman Ricardo Martinelli was inaugurated as president on July 1. He owns a chain of supermarkets. He pledged to carry out his plans to reduce the government budget, but says that public workers will get raises. (?) Other priorities include public safety, prison reform, and fighting drug traffickers. See CNN.com.

The Honduran newspaper Proceso reported that the presence at the inauguration in Panama of deposed Honduran president Manuel Zelaya made the hosts feel "uncomfortable." Zelaya now says he will put off his return to Honduras until Sunday. The article indicates:

Zelaya is accused in Honduras of abusing authority, violating the rights of government employees funcionarios, and treason, among other crimes, for which he could be sentenced to 20 years in prison, according to the Honduras attorney general, Luis Rubí.

El Salvador turns left

In El Salvador, the ideological pendulum swung in the opposition direction, as FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes was inaugurated as president one month ago. He was elected in March, and his inaugural speech emphasized the theme of "change." Now we will find out whether he is a moderate leftist like Lula da Silva, or a radical like Hugo Chavez.

More violence in Peru

The Peruvian Congress has rescinded an economic development law that had been recently passed, after fierce resistance from Indigenous people in the Amazon region. The law would have made it easier for foreign companies to commercial exploit the wilderness area of the Amazon rain forest, especially the mining and hydrocarbon industries. Angered at being ignored by the government in Lima, these groups had staged violent protests that left at least 30 people dead, including several police officers. For several days the blockades were set up around town of Bagua near the border with Ecuador. The point man in the negotiations has been Prime Minister Yehude Simon, who accepted the post several months ago after a corruption scandal caused a shakeup in President Alan Garcia's cabinet. Simon says he will resign after the crisis is resolved. Garcia says he hopes for reconciliation, but the ethnic distrust is very deep and will take years of effort to overcome. See BBC and CNN.com.

July 1, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Spoonbill makes the headlines

In her column in today's News Leader, YuLee Larner wrote about the Roseate Spoonbill that strayed off course and spent a few days near Waynesboro recently. (I was one of the fortunate ones to see it, racking up another notch on my life bird list; see June 18.) YuLee was clearly "tickled pink" (the same color as the bird!) by this special event:

The Augusta County roseate spoonbill will be the first documented Virginia record if accepted by the Virginia Avian Records Committee (VARCOM), and this is my rarest column since 1977.

There's no doubt that this sighting will be accepted, but I'm not so sure that my sighting of the Scissor-tailed flycatcher will be accepted. In any case, here's an old photo my brother John sent me a few years ago:

Roseate Spoonbill, somewhere in Florida, in 2000 or thereabouts, courtesy of John Clem.

Summer yard birds

Not much to report, as far as serious bird outings; we're in the summer doldrums now. The hummingbird is still showing up at our feeder a few times a day, and we get occasional House finches, Cedar waxwings, Cowbirds, and Catbirds. Grackles remain a nuisance, Starlings somewhat less so. Today I heard a familiar song near our back porch, and soon spotted the source: a male Goldfinch who was nibbling at one of the sunflower plants, which have grown to well over six feet tall. He called, and soon a female showed up. Goldfinches have paired up by now, and are getting ready to start their (late) breeding season.

English bird seed

In response to a friendly solicitation, I added to my Wild birds blog page a link to the The Really Wild Bird Food Company, located in Hampshire, U.K. I know that at least a few baseball fans in the U.K. and on the Continent follow my Web site / blog, but I don't know if any bird watchers do.

July 1, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Marlins sweep the Nationals again

Just when you think the Nationals are showing signs of life, they revert to their old habit of wasting solid outings by starting pitchers and throwing away run-scoring opportunities. They take an early lead, then their batters fall silent and Manny Acta decides to entrust the game's outcome to the bullpen, which gives up late-inning runs just about every time. On Tuesday night, pitcher Craig Stammen did a fine job, and even batted in two runs with a single. Adam Dunn's 20th home run added to the feeling that the Nats were going to overcome their jinx, but then the usual sequence of events unfolded, and they lost 7-5 in a rain-shortened game. Tonight (Wednesday) it was the same old, same old. It's not the way you want to start off a new month.

Somehow the Nats can't figure out how to beat the Florida Marlins, who have won all nine games against the "D.C. 9" this year. It's just like the Red Sox beating the Yankees in every matchup between the two teams. The Nationals have now lost 23 of their past 26 games to the Marlins, who are climbing toward the top of the NL East standings. Unlike most years, however, that's not saying much. They are now ahead of the Mets and only a half game behind the Phillies. (When was the last time the Mets were below .500 this late in the season?)

Nats make a deal

And not a moment too soon! The Nationals have traded their erstwhile closing pitcher Joel Hanrahan and outfielder Lastings Milledge to the Pittsburgh Pirates for reliever Sean Burnett and outfielder Nyjer Morgan, who has impressed a lot of people with his hustle and performance. As reported at MLB.com, "In seven games, Milledge, who was acquired from the Mets in December 2007 for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church, was 4-for-24 with an RBI for the Nationals."

I was dubious of that trade at the time (see December 2007), and the fact that Church and Schneider have proved their worth to the Mets leaves little doubt that this was probably the worst trade that Jim Bowden ever made. That MLB.com article notes that Cristian Guzman is also "on the trading block," because of his mediocre fielding performance this year. He's a reliable hitter, but just doesn't have enough range to snag hard ground balls. After his wonderful comeback season last year, it's a big shame.

Finally, the Nationals sent their burly and enthusiastic but uneven outfielder-slugger Elijah Dukes down to the Triple-A Syracuse farm team for some "back-to-basic" instruction. I hope he can pull it together.

June 30, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Military coup in Honduras

It has been several years since a military coup has been attempted in Latin America (2002, when Chavez was briefly detained in Venezuela), and two full decades since such a coup was successful (1989, when Stroessner was overthrown in Paraguay). Yet that is exactly what has just happened in Honduras.

Early on Sunday morning, President Manuel Zelaya was seized by soldiers, and sent to exile in Costa Rica. The coup was launched to prevent Zelaya from going ahead with a referendum that was intended to authorize the election of a constitutional assembly as a first step toward allow him to stay in power beyond the one-term limit. The Honduran Supreme Court had ruled that the referendum was illegal, but Zelaya ignored them. The Congress voted overwhelmingly to support this coup, accepting a letter of resignation purportedly signed by Zelaya, and then chose Roberto Micheletti to serve as president. Zelaya denied that he had written such a letter. Opposition to Zelaya in Congress was overwhelming, and even many of his own party's members defected. Furthermore, the Honduran Supreme Court said that it had authorized the military to remove the president. See Washington Post and CNN.com. That's an unusual position for a body dedicated to upholding the rule of law, but it may be a reflection of the dire situation they believed the country was in.

President Zelaya's push for a referendum for a constitutional assembly was clearly following in the footsteps of Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, each of which is now run by left-wing authoritarian rulers who had the rules changed so they can be reelected indefinitely. Presidential elections were scheduled for this coming November in Honduras, but in the wake of the coup, no one knows whether that will happen.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was understandably very circumspect in her press conference yesterday. Since the Obama administration does not make a high priority of either supporting democracy or Latin American affairs, there isn't much likelihood that the United States will take a high-profile position on the crisis in Honduras.

Among the newspapers in Honduras, El Heraldo reported favorably on the march in the capital city Tegucigalpa by 50,000 opponents of President Zelaya, celebrating being freed from the "yoke" of Hugo Chavez. Whether they represent the broad sentiment of Hondurans is uncertain, however. That newspaper mocked him for playing the role of a martyr, and for falsely claiming that his supporters had launched a general strike in Honduras.

Another paper, Proceso, seems to have a more neutral tone, but noted that in a statement before the U.N. General Assembly, Zelaya blamed the coup on "elite" forces in Honduras. He said they have falsely accused him of being a "populist or a communist who wants to ruin the country," insisting that they just want to block his plans for changing the country and reducing social inequality. He sounds a lot like President Barack Obama.

I don't follow Honduras very closely, but I was still shocked to learn that there was such an intense power struggle going on behind the scenes. Zelaya was first elected in November 2005, and at first he was considered a moderate liberal, favoring free trade with the United States and neighboring countries. One might think that the new left-wing Sandinista government of Nicaragua might be involved with Zelaya's push toward radicalism, but the territorial dispute between those two countries (see May 2007) makes that unlikely. Earlier this month, President Zelaya played a key role in the compromise under which Cuba was allowed to rejoin the OAS, under certain conditions. Now the OAS will play a key role in trying to broker a compromise to rescue Honduras from further chaos.

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UPDATE: Late on Tuesday, the U.N. General Assembly voted unanimously to endorse Manuel Zelaya as the legitimate president of Honduras, and the Organization of American States has given the de facto authorities in Honduras 72 hours to reinstall him. Zelaya said he intends to return to his country this weekend, even though he had been told that he would be arrested if he did so. Obama administration officials declined to meet with Zelaya, however, explaining that Secretary of State Clinton is still recuperating from a fractured elbow. (!) See the Washington Post. It's an ironic situation, in that Zelaya is denouncing "repression" and demanding respect for constitutional norms, even though he had been embarked on a determined campaign to circumvent such norms in order to impose his will on the country. His evident egotism and willingness to polarize society is puzzling and disturbing to me. If he does try to return to Honduras, he will cause a deep and long-lasting divide within the country, which had been known as one of the more stable parts of Latin America. Hopefully the opposing factions in Honduras can arrange a compromise solution adhering to the constitutional provisions as closely as is expedient.

June 29, 2009 [LINK / comment]

House votes to regulate climate*

On Friday, the United States House of Representatives voted 219-212 in favor of a massive 1,300-page bill that seeks nothing less than to stop global warming in its tracks. In spite of intensive lobbying by the White House, 44 Democrats voted "no," but eight Republicans crossed the aisle, providing just enough votes to save this high-priority legislative milestone. The bill contains a comprehensive set of mandates that will force industries to restrict their consumption of fossil fuels, or else pay a penalty for excessive greenhouse gas emissions. Companies that consume less than the ceiling would get credits that could be traded with companies that consume too much. As the Washington Post explains,

The heart of the bill is a "cap" that would lower greenhouse gas emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and to 83 percent below those levels by 2050. It would enforce the cap by requiring many sources of such pollution, including power plants, factories and oil refineries, to amass buyable, sellable credits equal to their emissions.

What I'd like to know is where they got those numbers. Is there any scientific evidence that a 17 percent drop in emissions by the U.S. would have a noticeably different effect than a ten percent drop? And what if companies shut their U.S. factories and open up new ones across the border in Mexico? Has anyone thought about that? And how can we be so sure that investing in new technologies will bring about the planned increase in energy efficiency? As far as breaking the fossil fuel habit, why hasn't Obama spoken more openly about following the French example and going nuclear??? I suppose real-world conditions don't matter very much to social engineers who are busy dreaming of how to make our future better.

In essence, under this system, the government would set an arbitrary limit on air polluting emissions while permitting companies to sell or purchase allowances, providing some quasi-market flexibility. It would be prohibitively expensive, and if the measure gets final approval in the Senate, years from now people will be screaming bloody murder, asking how such a thing could have been done. (The Heritage Foundation prepared an estimate of what the net cost of the Waxman-Markey Climate Change Bill would be for each congressional district. For Virginia's Sixth Congressional District, they forecast an annual decline in Gross State Product of $585.72 over the period 2012-2035. Most other districts in Virginia would suffer even more.) For the record, I don't rule out the possibility that greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on global temperatures. I am, however, very skeptical about the efficacy of the national caps, especially given that China is a bigger greenhouse gas emitter than we are. In principle, something along the lines of the "cap and trade" regulatory mechanism might be appropriate, but only if it was geared to a market price system in which producers and consumers could plainly see the direct costs they would be bearing. Arbitrary limits on consumption on consumption are not only less efficient and less equitable, they are inimical to the very notion of a free society. For those who are curious about this "cap and trade" business, here are some useful background sources:

• EPA
• Center for American Progress (LEFT)
• Heritage Foundation(RIGHT)

As for the politics, it seems that much of the opposition to the bill came from farm states. I was intrigued that the co-sponsors of the bill, Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-CA) and Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), rejected Obama's idea to have the emission allowances be auctioned off to make possible tax cuts that would offset some of the pain. As with the health care debate, Obama is either unable or unwilling to spend much of his precious political capital, a striking contrast to his bold approach to policy-making.

On the Republican side, Minority Leader John Boehner at least put up a respectable fight, insisting that the provisions of the bill be explained on the House floor, so that the members would actually know what they were voting on. Somehow, Rush Limbaugh got mixed up on which of the eight Republicans defected on the cap and trade legislation, falsely including our own Congressman Bob Goodlatte, notwithstanding Goodlatte's strong denunciation of the measure. Fortunately, the word got around on Facebook pretty quickly, and Rush issued a correction.

In a statement to reporters today, President Obama voiced confidence that the Senate will likewise follow the "forward-looking" example set by the House. Sigh.....

* Hopefully the absurdity of that title will register with some people. As if...

ABC's The Obama Show

I missed the President's prime-time interview/public forum with ABC anchorman Charlie Gibson last week, but you can watch the video at whitehouse.gov. Conservatives are outraged that ABC gave air time to Obama for what some saw as a blatant promotional "infomercial," and I would have to agree that Gibson made only the barest pretense of presenting both sides of the issue.

As a protest, a blogger in Cincinnati is launching a boycot of ABC and its sponsors; see Puma by design 001 and scroll to the middle. Hat tip to Stacey Morris.

Another Facebook poll

This sounds like a fairly accurate description of me, though I'm probably more of a free-market booster than it implies. Also, I don't necessarily dislike hippies, some of whom might fit the description of "Crunchy Conservative."

Moderate Republican

Tax cuts, less regulation, family values -they're all good to an extent, but hey, let's not go crazy. You're pragmatic, and you shy away from ideology. You want what works for America, and you sometimes feel that it isn't found in your own party's platform. You're a loyal Republican, though, and you know that government is at best a necessary evil. You probably have friends (and fierce enemies) on both sides of the aisle. You don't like hippies, but you don't like torture either. You love America, and want it well-defended, prosperous and healthy. You'd also like a bit less yelling, please. You probably have recently said: "I voted for McCain (twice)", "I'm working towards the centre", "I miss my father's Republican Party"

June 29, 2009 [LINK / comment]

PNC Park update

The PNC Park diagram has been revised in various ways -- some small, some not-so-small. Most importantly, the fence in right field is angled outward a few degrees more than I had estimated previously, and the stadium profile is much better than the crude original. A few other details are corrected as well, and details such as light towers and grandstand walkways are now included. Thanks to Mark London for his continued sponsorship of this page, and four others. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that PNC Park is the best of all the neoclassical stadiums, of which Oriole Park at Camden Yards was the first. With any luck, I'll be able to provide a first-hand assessment in about five weeks...

Note that, for the time being, I have left the previous version of the "alternate" stadium configuration the way it was, so that you can more easily see what has been changed.

Also note that I have rescanned the panoramic under-construction photo of PNC Park, and added another photo I took while passing through Pittsburgh in August 2000.

Also note that I have updated the Dolphin Stadium page (but not the diagram) to reflect the new name, "Landshark Stadium." (It's just temporary, I assume.) The Nationals have just begun a three-game series against the Marlins, and Ryan Zimmerman started things off on a good note by crushing a long home run to the seats in left field.

St. Louis ballparks

There is a cool Google Maps application that shows where all past and present professional ballparks in St. Louis have been located, and you just click on the respective spots to see a video and photographic history. See St. Louis Times Dispatch; hat tip to Kevin McCann of SABR.

Baseball theology

I cited George Will yesterday with regard to the debate over health care, but this quote from his column is worth bringing to the attention of baseball fans:

Only God, supposedly, and Wrigley Field, actually, are perfect.

June 28, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Obama's health care proposals

This past week, President Obama started his big push for health care "reform," setting the stage for what will surely be a monumental battle with the Republicans over the proper role of government. Oddly, Obama has played a passive role as far as the legislative specifics, leaving it up to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to fill in the details. It's an invitation to chaos and stalemate, which makes you wonder what Obama is up to. I would at least agree with Obama that the current system is a travesty that cannot be sustained much longer. I sharply disagree with most of his proposed remedies, however. From whitehouse.gov,

President Obama is committed to working with Congress to pass comprehensive health reform in his first year in order to control rising health care costs, guarantee choice of doctor, and assure high-quality, affordable health care for all Americans.

To put it bluntly, that is utopian balderdash. There are always tradeoffs in policy, and by declaring his desire to simultaneously tackle both sides of the dilemma, Obama exposes himself as a light-weight rookie, policy-wise. In the New York Times, David Brooks noted that the Congressional Budget Office has evaluated the two alternative plans put forth by the Democrats, and found that over the next 10 years, they "would cost the government more than $1 trillion this decade and send total health care costs zooming at least twice as fast as the economy as a whole." Obama may not be closely involved with the policy formulation at this stage, but numbers like that reinforce the impression held by many on the Right (including me) that the President is either indifferent to whether the Federal Treasury goes bankrupt, or it actively running that risk so as to create more emergencies that will justify more drastic action. I sure hope I'm just being paranoid about this.

In the Washington Post, George Will writes that most Americans do support health care reform, it's just that they have not really thought about it very deeply: "They want 2009 medicine at 1960 prices." It is a classic case of escapism, or refusing to face up to basic facts. He scorns Obama's fixation on the supposedly excessive share of health care expenditures in the average family budget, but this is as much due to improvements in technology and medical skill as anything. The reason we pay so much is because the quality of our medical care is so high! Maybe what we need, or what some Americans need, at least, is access to lower-quality medical care -- the "barefoot doctors" approach of Cuba or China in the days of Mao. Policies to enhance access to basic-level medical services in public clinics (such as is available in most of Latin America, for example) might be part of a bipartisan compromise solution. George Will gets to the crux of the matter in admirable fashion:

Most Americans do not know this because the cost of their care is hidden. Only 9 percent buy health coverage individually, and $84 of every $100 spent on health care is spent by someone (an employer, insurance company or government) other than recipients of the care. Those who get insurance as untaxed compensation from employers have no occasion to compute or confront the size of that benefit. But it is part of the price their employers pay for their work.

One of the few hopeful signs as this policy debate unfolds is that Obama has indeed begun hinting that he might accept taxes on the (hitherto undisclosed) employer contributions to health care insurance. During the campaign, Sen. McCain boldly took on this issue (see May 2008), but Obama assailed him for it. Now, he realizes that his program will need more revenue, and any government-run health insurance program will fail to attract customers unless that inherent advantage of private health care coverage is eliminated. (NOTE: Former President Bush cautiously addressed this issue in his last State of the Union address, in January 2008.)

Over the next few months, things are bound to get confusing for average folks across the Fruited Plain, as their very lives in the future now hinge upon what a bunch of big shots in Washington decide. Just keep this in mind: All that talk about how many billions this or that proposal will cost or save over the next ten years is a waste of time. Budgetary forecasts are rarely accurate more than a few years in advance, and when it comes to entitlement spending, the sky is the limit. No one really knows how much health care will cost ten years from now. Unless, that is, Obama really is determined to "contain health care costs" by imposing iron-clad caps on costs. That would be a devastating blow to what is left of our market-based economy, and would lead us down on a path toward a paternalistic, semi-authoritarian welfare state.

So what's the Republican alternative approach to health care reform? Beats me.

Obama and Canadian oil

As tensions with Iran mount over the dispute elections and subsequent crackdown against protesters, the question of whether we should reduce our dependence on oil imported from the Persian Gulf rises once again. Well, it seems that the Obama administration has taken "a rather belligerent stance" toward oil extracted from tar sands in Canada for environmental reasons. See Yahoo finance; hat tip to Dan. Apparently Obama is banking on political stability in the Middle East, because a democratic revolution would disrupt oil markets for several months at least. On the plus side, from a parochial standpoint, this shift in policy against oil from tar sands may cause a delay or cancellation of the proposed refinery to built in southeastern South Dakota; see Nov. 29.

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NOTE: While looking at my Facebook page on Saturday, I realized to my dismay that I had inadvertently posted a brief and preliminary version of this blog piece on Friday night. My apologies for the (extremely rare) "false start."

June 28, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Nationals beat the Orioles (once)

The heralded "Battle of the Beltway[s]" between Washington and Baltimore could just as well have been called the "Battle of the Basement Dwellers," as both the Nationals and Orioles are several games behind the fourth-place teams in their respective divisions. The Friday night game was a total embarrassment for the Nats, as their bullpen collapsed yet again, giving up eight runs in the sixth inning, as the O's won 11-1. It was the biggest margin of defeat the Nats have suffered this year. O Saturday they kept it relatively close, but wasted run-scoring opportunities once again. In this afternoon's game, John Lannan held the Orioles to only three runs in seven-plus innings. In the fourth inning, Ryan Zimmerman hit a double and Adam Dunn followed with a tape-measure home run that hit the warehouse building on one bounce. Budding outfield star Willie Harris added an insurance run with a homer in the same direction later in the game, as the Nats won 5-3, averting a sweep. See MLB.com.

Transactions of note

The Nationals have activated starting pitcher Scott Olsen who had been on the disabled list, and to make room for him, they sent Shairon Martis to the minor league farm club in Syracuse. See MLB.com. I was stunned to learn that one of the only five-game winning pitchers has lost his job, while the least reliable relief pitcher Jesus Colome gets to keep his. What gives???

The Nationals also traded outfielder Ryan Langerhans to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for infielder Mike Morse. This seemed like an odd move to me, because the Nats have a fair amount of depth in position players, but are extremely weak in pitching. It was mainly to give Langerhans an opportunity to play in the majors; see MLB.com. The only function I can see for Morse is as an emergency backup or to provide the front office with negotiating leverage with some of the other players; for now he'll be playing in the minors.

The Cleveland Indians traded verteran utility player Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for right-handed reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later. Unlike other trades of recent years (C.C. Sabathia comes to mind), this deal "brought the Indians an immediate Major League return, rather than a batch of prospects." See MLB.com. I saw DeRosa play when he was with the Richmond Braves in 1999, before he was called up to play with the Atlanta Braves. Over the years he has earned a reputation as a valuable team player, and he is steadily improving as a batter, with 13 home runs so far this year.

June 26, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Sri Lanka destroys Tamil Tigers

One of the most significant but least-heralded international events last month was the end of the civil war in Sri Lanka, which had lasted for nearly three decades. The uprising began in 1983 after Tamil demands for greater autonomy were rejected, and over 70,000 people were killed in the ensuing war. During the middle of May, the Sri Lankan army routed the remnants of the ethnic rebel army known as the "Tamil Tigers," and killed their leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. The circumstances of his death remain in question, however; see BBC. In the last weeks of the conflict, many civilians were killed by artillery shells fired by the Sri Lankan army. The victors showed no mercy to the survivors, opting instead for total annihilation. It may ensure peace in the short term, but will probably make any attempt at reconciliation with the Tamil minority more difficult in the long term. There will no doubt be investigations of the Sri Lankan final offensive by human rights organizations, and any negative findings would undermine the credibility of the government in Colombo. So, even though this was a decisive defeat from a military standpoint, there remains a possibility that exile leaders may regroup and begin preparations for a new resistance movement in the years to come.

The Tamils are concentrated in the northeastern part of Sri Lanka, and until a few months ago had a stronghold and functioning government are kin to the Dravidian ethnic group that populates the southeastern part of India. They claim to have an ancient history residing on the island, but the native Sinhalese claim that the Tamils are relatively recent immigrants; see the historical article by Prof. S. Ranwella. When the British colony of Ceylon (as it was known until 1972) became independent in 1948, the Tamils were deprived of citizenship rights because they had enjoyed special privileges under British rule and were considered subversive, and likely to help India take over the island nation.

The fears of the Sinhalese seemed to be borne out in 1987, when India sent troops to try to end the civil war in Sri Lanka. Largely because of mutual mistrust, however, the intervention backfired badly, and the Indian forces were soon withdrawn. The Tamil Tigers were saved from imminent defeat, and used the respite to regroup and rebuild, which resulted in an escalation of the violence and death. See FPRI.org.

A large majority of Tamils are Hindus, though some are Muslims, whereas the Sinhalese majority of Sri Lankans are predominantly Buddhists. Ironically, the Buddhist faith had largely disappeared from the rest of India by the year 1200, even though Buddha Gotama himself lived in what is today northern India, in the 6th Century B.C. Hindu religious nationalism has become inflamed in recent years by Muslim extremists, such as the notorious terrorist attack on Mumbai (Bombay) last November. In other words, there are a wide variety of geopolitical, cultural, and ethnic factors which made national unity and peace in Sri Lanka very difficult.

June 26, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Can Gov. Sanford keep his job?

Yet another Republican official has been caught up in a morals scandal that, in many peoples' eyes, makes the party look hypocritical. Gov. Mark Sanford's lame alibi -- that he was hiking along the Appalachian Trail -- was bound to unravel eventually, and made the affair with the mysterious "Maria" of Argentina all the more farcical. It makes you wonder how a smart guy like that would think he could get away with it. Lust and hubris go hand in hand, and if political leaders can't control themselves, they soon fall. As far as his public duties, Sanford's biggest sin was making trips with taxpayers' money. No one can excuse that, period. If he avoids impeachment, he will still end up gravely weakened, probably ruining his political career. He has left his position as chairman of the Republican Governors' Conference, and is no longer a serious contender for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

Sanford drew flak from other Republicans in March, referring to people like Rush Limbaugh in suggesting that anyone who wants President Obama to fail is an "idiot." Hey, Mark take a look in the mirror!

Washington Post cartoonist Tom Toles had a pretty good one today, with the GOP elephant lost somewhere along the Appalachian Trail between Maine and Argentina (!), holding a map and a bible entitled "Holier Than Thou." The fact that so few Republican leaders recognize the perilous position they put themselves in when they court moralistic "values voters" who are especially liable to punish candidates who "stray from the path." Sometimes the party as a whole suffers for the sins of a few. As the Toles cartoon says, the Republicans are indeed in the "Wilderness Years."

For the record, I was hiking along the Appalachian Trail last weekend, in case anyone was wondering where I was. Unlike Sanford, however, I was with my wife!

Rambling Kaine

But wait, there's another southern governor who has been AWOL for extended periods in recent months: our very own Timothy Kaine! With all his fund-raising trips on behalf of the Democratic Party lately, he is a true "ramblin' man." (Cue Allman Brothers.) Virginia Republicans have been demanding that Kaine release his travel records so that the public can know where and what he has been up to. Today, however, his office issued a flat rejection, saying that travels that do not pertain to state business are nobody's business. See the Washington Post. Hmmm. I guess that means that he is only a part-time governor. Did the voters realize that his devotion to the Commonwealth would take a back seat to his Higher Ambitions when they elected him three and a half years ago? In the News Leader, Jim McCloskey had a good cartoon today, pointing to the parallels between Gov. Kaine and "fellow traveler" Gov. Sanford, with Kaine's wife saying "At least my husband isn't in Argentina."

R.I.P. Jack Kemp

While the rest of the world is absorbed in the tragedy of Michael Jackson's death, we should take a minute to remember someone who died last month whose work never got as much credit as was due. Jack Kemp was a pro football quarterback (for the Buffalo Bills) as well as a congressman and a member of the (first) Bush cabinet, as secretary of housing and urban development. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele paid tribute to Kemp as a "standard-bearer for economic conservatism and lower taxes within the Republican Party. ... He would often remind me what it meant to be a 'Lincoln Republican.'" See GOP.com. Conservative curmudgeon Cal Thomas wrote a tribute column that appeared in the News Leader: "The Jack Kemp I Knew." Like Steele, he emphasizes that Kemp was a sincere true believer in expanding opportunities for less-advantaged people by unleashing market forces.

I sometimes wondered about some of Kemp's ideas, such as supply-side economics or targeted tax breaks to regenerate business in urban areas by creating "enterprise zones." It just seemed too gimmicky and prone to misuse to me. Nevertheless, I would agree with the general idea that in an imperfect world you sometimes need to compromise with basic principles in order to accomplish important tasks. Kemp never worried about whether he fit somebody else's description of a "true conservative." The important thing about his life is that he broadened the Republican Party's appeal, a vital task that has fallen by the wayside in recent years.

June 26, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Standing room only; Nats win!

It's been a long time since I've felt sorry for the Boston Red Sox, and even though they currently lead the AL East, I almost did during last night's game in Washington. The first inning must have been excruciating and quite humbling for their recently-acquired veteran pitcher John Smoltz, in his first start of the season. The Nationals scored four runs in the first inning, and could have easily scored even more. Then he settled down, but the Red Sox could not get anything going off the Nats' rookie starter Jordan Zimmermann. Once again, batters toward the end of the lineup provided most of the offensive firepower, and the Nationals won 9-3, averting a sweep. It was a very welcome change of pace: In only two games since June 2 have the Nats scored more than four runs.

Attendance at last night's game was 41,985, the highest ever at Nationals Park, and exactly 97 more than the official seating capacity of 41,888. Attendance at the first two games of the season was only a few hundred less, yielding a series total of 125,032.

Prior to this series, there had only been one game at Nationals Park in which attendance had exceeded 40,000: April 13, 2009, which was Opening Day. The highest-ever attendance for a three-game series in Washington was 134,991: June 16-18, 2006 when the Yankees came to town and lost two games. The highest-ever attendance for a four-game series in D.C. was 162,058: July 4-7, 2005 when the Mets won three games, marking the end of the Nats' "Cinderella (half) season." The following table summarizes home attendance for Nationals games over the nearly four and a half years of their existence:

Year	Maximum attendance	Minimum attendance	Average attendance	Wins when att. >40K	Losses when att. >40K
2005	45,596	23,332	33,584	6	5
2006	45,157	18,324	26,574	2	3
2007	40,519	15,611	24,219	1	1
2008	39,824	20,407	29,004	0	0
2009*	41,985	12,473	22,773	1	3

* So far. I'm still mad that attendance at the inaugural game at Nationals Park last year was 2,000 less than capacity, even though thousands of fans like me tried desperately to buy tickets online. More complete historical data are found on the Washington Nationals page.

A blogger from Arlington named Miles Grant went to the Red Sox-Nationals game at Nationals Park on Wednesday night, and was surprised to see a live Great Horned Owl on display. See The Green Miles.

Inside Tiger Stadium

Two weeks ago I asked if anyone knew whether there were rows of seats behind the second set of support beams in the lower deck at Tiger Stadium. It's so far back there in the shade that it's hard to tell from photos, and demolition photos are inconclusive. (I've only seen the outside of it.) Thanks to Bruce Orser, who came across a great photo of the left field stands at Digital Ballparks, I can definitively answer in the affirmative.

Tigers are on a roll

The Detroit Tigers are currently the hottest team in baseball, winning seven games straight, and now leading the AL Central Division by five games over the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers swept the Cubs in a three-game home series, drawing 42,332 fans to Comerica Park in the game on Thursday. See MLB.com. The Tigers now head to Houston, where the Astros are in fifth place in the NL Central Division.

(LSU) Tigers win CWS

Congratulations to the Louisiana State University Tigers for winning the 2009 College World Series in Omaha, taking two of three games in the final series from the Texas Longhorns. It is at least some consolation for University of Virginia fans that the Cavaliers played a respectable game against LSU, losing 9-5 on June 13.

Tiger Woods slowly heals

In the world of golf, Tiger Woods could not recover from a first-round score of four over par at the U.S. Open in Farmingdale, New York, and Lucas Glover edged out Phil Mickelson to take the 2009 championship. Tiger had knee surgery last year, and is still a bit weak but is playing better all the time. He is currently second in total winnings for the 2009 PGA tour, behind Phil Mickelson. See ESPN.

Tamil Tigers are crushed

In Sri Lanka, meanwhile, the ethnic rebel group known as the "Tamil Tigers" was decisively defeated last month, ending a 26-year civil war. They don't play baseball in Sri Lanka, but rather a quite peculiar sport called "cricket." Coincidentally, the Sri Lankan team was defeated by Pakistan in the International Cricket Championship just last Sunday; see srilankacricket.lk. Interestingly enough, the Sri Lankan national team is called the "Lions"! For the life of me, I cannot make heads or tails of the scoring system. Last March, Islamic terrorists attacked a bus carrying the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, Pakistan, killing several policemen and injuring several team members and a coach; see BBC.

June 25, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Imagining an alternate Argentina

Argentina has made headline news for the past couple days, which doesn't happen that often, and once again, an unflattering image of that country has been spotlighted. Gov. Sanford's dalliance quickly became fodder for late-night TV talk shows, which pander to popular stereotypes about a foreign culture of which most of us know little. It's a shame -- both the scandal and our ignorance.

But this painful situation does at least provide an occasion for me to to mention an intriguing intellectual project I learned about recently. One of the biggest debates in the field of Latin American studies is whether and to what extent culture has an effect on socio-economic development. The orthodox North American perspective follows Max Weber, who argued that the "Protestant work ethic" explains why Northern Europe and North America are more successful economically than Southern Europe and Latin America. In the scholarly world, Lawrence Harrison is associated with this line of thought, that culture determines development. (His books Underdevelopment Is a State of Mind and The Pan-American Dream explore this theme.) I think there's something to it, but I refrain from making too much of culture as a variable, because it's too hard to measure.

Well, a few months ago I was contacted by a guy who has taken this argument to a new plane, using alternate history to explore what might have happened in the Southern Cone region if a few key naval clashes between Spain and Great Britain during the late 18th Century had turned out differently. Britain has designs on the southern tip of South America (that's why they took control of the Falkland Islands), and it could very well have ended up as another part of the British Empire. In short, Argentina today would be much like Canada as we know it: prosperous and stable, with English as the official language and an occasionally restive but usually compliant minority-language population. Take a look at British Argentina, and ask yourself whether that's a plausible scenario. As someone who sees historical events as often hinging upon small twists of fate, I'm inclined to think that it is.

June 24, 2009 [LINK / comment]

Stadium diagram update archives

It has often occurred to me that I should make it easier to track revisions to my stadium diagrams, some of which have gone through multiple generations. For serious research purposes, such documentation is crucial. With that in mind, I scoured my blog archives and put together a set of archive pages that systematically keep track of when I have updated stadium diagrams over the past five years. Regrettably, my "blogging" prior to late 2004 was not consistent enough to serve as a reliable source of information on exactly when I made changes. See the 2009 stadium update page, which is (for now) equivalent to the "default" stadium update page. There are links for each of the separate annual pages, 2005 - 2009, each of which has a set of thumbnail images in the right-hand column showing the "Highlights of the year." Those are either brand-new stadium pages, or else ones which underwent major revisions. I am not certain that the listed updates are complete, but it's the best information that I have at present.

Going through all those archives was quite a "trip down memory lane," and yielded a few surprises. For example, I had forgotten how my political activities in 2007 had interfered with my baseball research work. Likewise, the number of times that I updated the diagrams for Yankee Stadium and Tiger Stadium over the years is hard to believe. But hey, Rome wasn't built in a day, and there is a lot of trial and error involved in getting things just right.

"Put your red on" ??

The promotional campaign to get D.C.-area baseball fans to "Put your red on" as a gesture of support for the lowly Washington Nationals is nice, but often inappropriate. Earlier this month, the Cincinnati Reds came to town, and would have swept the Nats if not for a throwing error by second baseman Brandon Phillips that allowed Cristian Guzman to score the go-ahead run. This week the Boston Red Sox are in town, and the house was almost packed with fans of the visiting team last night, with an attendance of 41,517, even more than on Opening Day. It was encouraging that John Lannan had yet another very solid outing, giving up only three runs in six-plus innings. It was a very close and exciting game against a daunting opponent. But of course, once they brought in the relievers, everything fell apart, and the Red Sox scored six runs in the eighth inning. Arghhhh! Final score: 11-3.

No go for "P.G. United"

By happenstance, I recently learned that the Prince George's County council voted 8-0 against the proposed soccer stadium deal with D.C. United, which pretty much kills the whole project. See the Washington Business Journal. This is good news as far as I'm concerned, as Maryland already has FedEx Field, home of the "Washington" Redskins, as well as their own baseball and football stadiums. This will also obviate the awkward necessity of having to rename the team from "D.C. United" to "P.G. United." The franchise bosses are not giving up the fight, however: see the D.C. United Web site. What this means for RFK Stadium, their home since 1996, remains uncertain. It would be nice if they could somehow downsize and refit RFK to make it more suitable for soccer, possibly tearing down large portions of the upper deck, but that would seem to be very difficult from an engineering standpoint, and quite unlikely.

More hockey arena news

You thought I had given up on hockey news? No, siree! Mike Zurawski informed me that Madison Square Garden (home of the NHL New York Rangers and NBA Knicks) will undergo a renovation that is estimated to cost about $500 million. They will widen the concourses, add more bathrooms, and build new corporate boxes. See New York Daily News. "MSG" (not monosodium glutamate) sits on top of the "new" Penn Station, which replaced its grandiose predecessor that was built in 1910 and closed in 1964. For another "trip down memory lane," see forgotten-ny.com.

Madison Square Garden, which upon closer inspection, actually appears to be round, not square!! (Taken during my trip to the Big Apple last October; see Photo gallery.)