September 29, 2008 [LINK / comment]

New constitution for Ecuador

Based on early returns, it appears that almost two-thirds of the people of Ecuador voted to approve a revised constitution that would greatly enhance the powers of the president. For one thing, he would have the power to dissolve Congress once per term, though that would force new presidential elections to be held. Incumbent presidents would be eligible for reelection after their initial four-year term is up; President Rafael Correa has already served two years, and thus may hold on to power for eight additional years -- or more, pending further constitutional revision. The left-wing Correa hailed the results of the referendum, saying, "This confirms the citizens' revolution." As reported by the Washington Post,

Correa's supporters emphasize that the 444-article document -- Ecuador's 20th constitution -- prohibits discrimination, respects private property, will increase spending on health care and the poor, and enshrines more rights for indigenous groups. In a country rich with ecological treasures, including the Galapagos Islands and part of the Amazon rain forest, the constitution also calls on government to avoid measures that would destroy ecosystems or drive species to extinction -- the first such measure of its kind, according to Ecuadoran officials. The constitution would allow civil unions for gay couples.

Obviously, that is not a "constitution" in any traditional sense, it is a laundry list of vague aspirations and specific commitments that probably cannot be fulfilled. It takes to the extreme the Latin American habit of enshrining a multitude of particular concerns in the Basic Charter, making it so complex that hardly anyone has the slightest idea of what the Constitution really says. Today the jubilant Correa called on his country's citizens to help "build a more just society." See CNN.com. Ecuador thus continues to march in the authoritarian footsteps of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, abandoning the traditional constitutional restraints that made possible peaceful political change. The people of Ecuador will soon learn what a "revolution" really is, just as the people of Bolivia are learning...

A nuclear Venezuela?

Just back from a trip to Russia, where he met with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, President Hugo Chavez announced that he is seeking help from Moscow in developing a nuclear power program. Of course, he made the obligatory stipulation that it would be for "civilian" purposes. See CNN.com. In an energy-rich country like Venezuela, however, the political and strategic purposes of such a program are obvious to everyone. Moscow has no reason to help Venezuela gain the capacity to build its own nuclear weapons, but given its ongoing strategic offensive aimed at toppling U.S. global supremacy, it has every reason to make the U.S. government think that it is doing so.

September 23, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Russian fleet sails to Venezuela

In yet another display of military might aimed at regaining its former status as a global superpower, the Russian government announced that a fleet of ships has set sail to Caracas, Venezuela. The fleet will be led by the nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter the Great, but it's unclear how many ships will join it. The naval exercise is also intended as a show of support to President Hugo Chavez, who has been keeping up the diplomatic pressure on the United States recently, and is heavily involved with the radical governments in Ecuador and Bolivia. In addition, "Two Russian bombers arrived in Venezuela last week for training flights." Russian oil firms are also exploring investment options in Venezuela, and it all adds up to a multi-front strategic offensive by Moscow. See BBC and CNN.com.

Is this 1962 all over again -- a precursor to another Cuban Missile Crisis? Probably not, but it should remind us of the recent adverse shifts in the global balance of power, and the precarious state of the geopolitical situation right now. Russia has been selling large amounts of military equipment to Venezuela in recent years (see, for example, June 2006), including fighter jets, helicopters, and huge numbers of small arms, presumably intended for guerrilla forces in neighboring countries. Talks about purchases of armored vehicles are underway as well. To deal with this threat to regional peace and stability, the United States will have to devote more of its scarce military and strategic resources to the Western Hemisphere, making the ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq more difficult to sustain.

September 20, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Deadly prison riot in Mexico

One of the most worrisome trends in Latin America, aside from the spread of radical populism inspired by Hugo Chavez, is the rising frequency of deadly prison riots. This a partly a symptom of social stress, but mainly reflects the growing influence of criminal gangs involved in the drug trade. This phenomenon has been concentrated primarily in Central America, but may be spreading. Brazil has suffered such experiences in recent years, and it even happened Paraguay in June. In Mexico this week, about 20 people died in La Mesa prison in Tijuana, and a video of the shooting can be seen at BBC. It started last Sunday, when three prisoners died in a riot over demands for more food, and a second round led to a sharp increase in the death toll on Thursday.

September 18, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Secessionism in Bolivia

Tensions in Bolivia have risen sharply once again over the past week, as several departmental (provinicial) governments have resisted central government authority, provoking a harsh crackdown by President Evo Morales. The army was sent in to take over in the northern department of Pando, after a state of emergency was declared there. Morales ordered the prefect (governor) Leopoldo Fernandez to be arrested, accusing him of having about 30 pro-government farm workers killed. In Santa Cruz province, the heart of the secessionist movement, opposition leader Branko Marinkovic ordered roadblocks to be taken down as a gesture of goodwill. The crisis assumed international proportions when Morales ordered U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg to leave the country, accusing him of fomenting the rebellion. Several South American leaders, including Brazil's "Lula" da Silva, Peru's Alan Garcia, and Chile's Michelle Bachelet, voiced support for the Bolivian government. (Bachelet "said she hoped the Union of South American Nations could help promote a democratic solution," which is wishful thinking.) See BBC. Those relatively moderate leftist leaders do not necessarily support Morales himself, but rather, support Bolivian national integrity. Secessionary movements are a latent threat in Peru and other countries in the region, and no one wants a large-scale civil war in South America.

In response to the expulsion of the U.S. ambassador, the U.S. government declared Bolivia to be among the countries that have failed to cooperate in fighting international narcotics smuggling. The opposition leaders, which have organized themselves as the "National Democratic Council" (CONALDE), agreed to formal negotiations, which have begun in the central city of Cochabamba. Tensions seem to have abated slightly in the past day, and United Nations official Yoriko Yasukawa has offered his organization's assistance, for whatever that's worth. The relatively new "Union of South American Nations" is playing a major international role for the first time, and this will be a test of whether continental multilateral diplomacy can succeed without U.S. involvement. See Washington Post and El Diario (Spanish).

Such a violent clash was probably inevitable after the popular referendum last month failed to yield a consensus on which direction the country should take. President Morales hopes to carry out another referendum on his planned constitutional changes later this year, and one of the opposition's main goals is to prevent that from taking place. It would codify a stronger, more centralized and more authoritarian government, with a clear socialist agenda, in the mold of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

September 11, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Will Brazil join OPEC??

In yet another sign of how topsy-turvy the world is becoming, OPEC has invited Brazil to become a member of the elite petroleum exporting quasi-cartel. (A genuine cartel would control supplies on a consistent basis, and OPEC only does so on occasion.) Actually, it was Iran that made the invitation, and strategic (anti-U.S.) considerations no doubt played a big part in this gesture of "Third World solidarity." Historically, Brazil has been dependent on a very large share of its energy needs, which is why it has invested so much into ethanol fuel production, mostly made from sugar cane. A major discovery of offshore oil reserves was made in April, and this could be the break that would finally make Brazil into a actual superpower, as opposed to a superpower of the future. See BBC.

September 9, 2008 [LINK / comment]

U.S. plans to leave Ecuador

It appears that the radical president of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, is determined to terminate the presence of U.S. military and anti-drug agents in his country next year. It seems less likely all the time that he is just trying to bargain for a better deal. (See August 11.) The Washington Post gave one reason why Correa isn't worried about the economic losses if the 450 American personnel do leave his country, as planned: The Venezuelan government and a Hong Kong company are investing in development projects in the area around the coastal city of Manta, where the U.S. air base is located.

Subversive intentions by Venezuela (i.e., Hugo Chavez) almost go without saying. One wonders, however, whether the Chinese government is connected to that Hong Kong firm; that would raise the strategic stakes in Ecuador considerably. China has become increasingly involved in Latin American business in recent years, such as maintenance on the Panama Canal, in which the United States still has a vital interest.

September 4, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Mexicans protest violence

For the past few years, Mexico has been plagued by a wave of brutal murders and assassinations of public officials perpetrated by the narco-mafia. For example, twelve decapitated bodies were discovered last week outside the city of Merida , in the Yucatan peninsula. Most of them had criminal records, and it seems to be part of a war among rival drug gangs. It is thus a very encouraging sign that thousands of Mexican people have organized to protest this violence. At least 50,000 marched in Mexico City, demanding that the government of Felipe Calderon do more to fight the crime wave. See CNN.com. Calderon is well aware of the urgent need to fight the mafia, but he is handicapped by corruption in the police forces and continued political in-fighting, as the rival leftist PRD and centrist PRI parties resist his policy reform agenda. If he can't accomplish much more progress in the next few months, however, his conservative National Action Party (PAN) will suffer a defeat at the polls when the mid-term congressional elections are held next year.

Colombian rebels quit

Meanwhile, there is more progress toward pacification in Colombia, as another group of rebels has surrendered. The Guevarista Revolutionary Army (ERG), a faction of the National Liberation Army (the smaller of the two main rebel armies), agreed to demobilize. See BBC.