October 2006 Archives

October 25, 2006 [LINK / comment]

MLB labor contract renewed

Bud Selig and Don Fehr were all smiles at the announcement of the five-year renewal of the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Players Association. It is the longest such agreement ever reached. The terms appear to be very complex, essentially a formula for ensuring that players and owners share in the wealth generated by the sport. There will be steady increases in minimum salaries, and in the thresholds to which the competitive balance tax applies. (The tax rate itself will stay the same, so Mr. Steinbrenner can rest easy.) As anyone who has studied Econ 101 knows, it is a flagrant violation of the principles of market economics, insulating both parties from the vicissitudes of supply and demand. Of course, a major part of the contract was an extension of the drug testing provisions beyond the existing 2008 end point. Also, "There will be no contraction during the term of the agreement." Selig boasted that this is baseball's "golden era," but the reason the economic trends are so good right now is because of the enormous public sector subsidy through all the recent stadium construction. For all the taxpayer money that has been spent, the players and owners sure as hell had better come to an agreement! See MLB.com.

Carpenter nails Detroit

The Cardinals' premier starter Chris Carpenter prevented the Tigers from scoring any runs last night, giving up only three hits in eight innings. Two of those hits were from Sean Casey, who had injured his calf muscle two weeks ago. Facing Jeff Suppan tonight (weather permitting), the Tigers are in a much more difficult position than most people had expected last week. They had the best win-loss record in road games this year (49-32), and now we'll see whether they can live up to that achievement.

Girardi passes on the Nationals

Joe Girardi, who managed the Marlins this year, announced he doesn't want to manage for the Washington Nationals next year, citing "family reasons." (Perhaps, but that's what they all say.) See Washington Post. Another leading candidate, Braves coach Terry Pendleton, has withdrawn his name from consideration as well.

October 2, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Twins & Padres division champs

The regular season ended in clearcut fashion, obviating the need for any playoff games. For the rest of the year, the bottom of the baseball blog page will include a table of scores for the 2006 postseason, which is also displayed on the historical Postseason scores page. Of course, most people are focused on the possibility of a repeat of the 2000 "Subway Series" between the Yanks and the Mets, but as noted at MLB.com, there are three other plausible repeat World Series matchups:

• Tigers-Padres (1984)
• Cardinals-Twins (1987)
• Athletics-Dodgers (1988)

Now that Jeter, Matsui, and Sheffield are all healthy again, the Yankees stand an excellent chance of going to the World Series for the first time in three years. Randy Johnson probably doesn't matter, and neither does Pedro Martinez, for that matter. Both had been relatively ineffective for most of the year anyway. I'm going with the conventional wisdom that it will be another "New York, New York" series, and guessing that Bronx will beat Queens in seven games, but I wouldn't rule out a surprise or two. The Twins have built a huge wave of momentum over the past three months, and it is possible that the Tigers will rediscover whatever that magic spark they had in the first half of the season.

Mets sweep the Nationals

I managed to get into Washington on Saturday and see the Nationals get walloped by the New York Mets 13-0. At least I think it was the Nationals; I hardly recognized most of the names of the lineup. In contrast, I certainly recognized Tom Glavine, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Jose Reyes. Profound lesson of the day: a first-string postseason-bound team is likely to beat a second-string last-place team. Getting swept in a home series was not exactly the way Frank Robinson wanted to end his career as a manager.

I had the pleasure to see Hall of Famer Frank Robinson before the Saturday game with the Mets, just after it was announced that he will not be returning as manager next year. He was being interviewed for the "George Michael's Sports Machine" show. More photos are pending.

¿Dónde estaba Alfonso Soriano?

To my immense disappointment, Alfonso Soriano was not in the lineup at the Saturday game I attended, only his third absence all season long. He did not play at the other game I attended at RFK Stadium this year (July 2), either. Given that he played in 159 out of 162 games this year, the probability that a fan would not see him play in any randomly selected game would be 1.85 percent, or 54 to 1 odds. The probablity that a fan would not see him play in either of two randomly selected games would be .03 percent, or 2916 to 1 odds. Is this bad karma, or what? Odds are, I will never see Soriano in a Washington Nationals uniform. Even though Frank Robinson shifted him to bat third last week in hopes of boosting his RBI total into the three-digit range, Soriano went hitless in the last six games he played for the Nationals. For the month of September, he only hit three home runs and had a batting average of .204, dropping his cumulative batting average to .277 -- not exactly the best way to gain negotiating leverage as a free agent.

Buck O'Neil is ailing

Famed Negro League player Buck O'Neil, age 94, has been hospitalized and has lost his voice. See yahoo.com. (Hat tip to Bruce Orser.)

October 2, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Election in Brazil: Round One

Brazil held presidential elections on Sunday, and President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva fell just short of an outright majority, necessitating a second-round election which will be held on October 29. "Lula" has been widely praised for the prudent way he has pursued his leftist agenda, which has helped a number of poor families, but his Workers' Party has been tarnished by a series of corruption scandals. Last week several of his campaign workers were accused of paying $800,000 for information the main opposing candidate, Geraldo Alckmin. Ironically, widespread cynicism about corruption in Brazil may shield Lula from the consequences. It was surprising nonetheless that Alckmin -- of the conservative Social Democrat Party -- received as much as 42 percent of the votes cast, because he was a relative unknown outside of the state of Sao Paulo, where he previously served as governor. See Washington Post and CNN.com. Since Lula came very close to the 50 percent threshhold in the first round, it seems almost certain that he will prevail in the second round. At least this will provide a greater opportunity for the conservative opposition to voice their opinions and force Lula to state more clearly what he intends to do in his (presumed) second term. Brazil's financial system has been weakened by heavy government spending, and economic experts warn that fiscal reforms are urgent.

This election has strong implications for the rest of Latin America, where leftist parties are being pulled in opposite directions: the moderate, pragmatic course of da Silva in Brazil and Bachelet in Chile, versus the radical, utopian course of Chavez in Venezuela and Morales in Bolivia. Failure by moderate leftists in Brazil might bode well for the extreme leftists in other countries.

October 2, 2006 [LINK / comment]

More sleaze in Washington

In an obvious attempt to influence the upcoming elections in favor of the Democrats, two new scandals were uncorked this weekend. First, vague "news reports" disclosed that Rep. Mark Foley carried on some kind of disgusting relationship with a House page. Unlike Barney Frank, Ted Kennedy, or any number of ethically challenged Democrats, Foley at least had the sense to resign immediately for the good of his party. Speaker Dennis Hastert objected to the release of the unwholesome e-mail messages, but some conservatives think he is on shaky ethical ground himself. For example, Ed Morrissey claims that Hastert was told about Foley almost a year ago, and is part of the coverup. (via nationaljournal.com, via Instapundit) This mess only adds to the impression that Republican leaders loathe to do anything that might loosen their grip on power.

The other bombshell exposé came from Bob Woodward, who appeared on the Today show to plug his new book, State of Denial, about Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld's refusal to face up to the ugly situation in Iraq, and their stubborn resistance to suggestions from military commanders. (See Washington Post.) These criticisms are hardly news, and I have more than once opined that Bush has a lot to answer for being so isolated from friendly expert advice, but Woodward insists that his book brings fresh new evidence to light, from his interviews. Maybe. He frankly admitted that his publishers wanted the book to come out before the election -- for business reasons, of course. In response, White House spokesman Tony Snow did a creditable job rebutting the main charges, wisely acknowledging that the book no doubt contains much true information. I hope Bush appreciates what a huge asset Snow is at this difficult moment.

Unprincipled Dems?

Perhaps I am too complacent, but I still don't think the Democrats have made a convincing case to the public that they are any better equipped to lead the country than the Republicans. Besides, gas prices are still dropping, at an opportune moment for the GOP incumbents. In today's Washington Post, Sebastian Mallaby, who seems to represent the left-of-center Washington establishment, finds nothing to get excited about from the Democrats: "They clearly want power, but they have no principles to guide their use of it." I take exception, however, to the issue that has Mallaby riled up: Many Democrats went along with the majority and voted to build a 700 mile fence along the Mexican border. I have reservations about going to such extreme lengths with such a fence, but the fact is that our border is a joke, and something must be done about it. That is not a racist position. We don't need such a fence on our border with Canada because it is not being violated nearly as much. We are fortunate that many Democrats have enough sense to realize that serious action is necessary.

October 3, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Nationals: Year in review

Finishing in last place once again forces us to do some Sober Reflecting, while squinting to find some kind of "silver lining" around those dark clouds of agonizing defeat. The electrifying April 2005 debut series in Washington whereby the Nationals swept the Diamondbacks got the newly relocated team off to a fine start. In contrast, in this year's opening series at RFK Stadium the Nationals were swept by the Mets! Home field advantage counted for hardly anything early in the season, as the Nats lost nine of their first ten home games. For most of the first six weeks there were hovering around .333, usually in fourth place in the NL East. They turned things around with a win against the Orioles at home on May 20, beginning a three-week hot stretch that brought them to within four games of .500 -- the closest they ever came this year. Then the Colorado Rockies swept them at RFK Stadium in mid-June, the start of another cold streak lasting through mid-July. Consecutive sweeps at home against the Cubs and Giants later that month were probably the high point of the year, but they could never hold the momentum. They managed a winning record in September, salvaging some dignity, but the loss of the final three games to the Mets -- like the sweep in April -- provided a fitting end to a very disappointing season. So, what were the Most Memorable Moments of the year? I would say:

• Apr. 21: Three home runs by Alfonso Soriano helped beat the Braves, 7-3.
• May 13: Braves win 8-5 on grand slam by Jeff Francouer in bottom of the 9th.
• June 17: Nats erase 7-run deficit and beat Yanks at home, 11-9.
• June 18: Nats beat Yanks 3-2 on Ryan Zimmerman's 2-run homer in bottom of the 9th.
• July 6: Marlins beat Nats in D.C., 18-9. Ugh...
• Aug. 15: Pedro Astacio pitches complete 2-hit game, no walks; Nats 5, Braves 0.
• Sept. 27: Phillies win 8-7 in 14 innings after Nats score a run in 9th, 10th & 14th.
• Oct. 1: Frank Robinson bids an emotional farewell to appreciative fans at RFK.

Some of those moments we wish we could forget. The following summary table can be compared to the table I compiled last year.

Washington Nationals: 2006 summary

Month	Wins	Losses	NL East place (at end)	Number of home games	Total attendance	Average attendance
April	8	17	4	8	202,430	25,304
May	14	15	4	15	390,393	26,026
June	11	16	5	12	357,775	29,815
July	14	11	5	15	412,751	27,517
August	9	18	5	13	352,350	27,104
Sept. - Oct.	15	14	5	18	436,829	24,268
TOTAL	71	91	5	81	2,152,528	26,574

SOURCE: My unofficial daily tabulations from MLB Gameday stats and Washington Post.

One of the striking differences between the Nationals' first year and their second is in the pitching-versus-batting tradeoff. Injuries to Pedro Astacio (before the season even started) and John Patterson in midseason exposed a crippling vulnerability in the bullpen. Jon Rauch performed well, but the rest of the "motley crew" was seldom up to the task, so that Chad Cordero had far fewer save opportunities than in 2005. The sharply reduced win-loss record (from 81-81 to 71-91) was matched by a corresponding drop in average attendance, from 33,584 to 26,574 per game.

Nats need new stadium ASAP

As the above figures suggest, the mediocre performance by the Nationals this year puts at risk their fan support from the Washington area. As the Washington Post notes, this raises the pressure on the stadium builders to finish the construction pronto. I just hope the Lerners are wise enough to realize that baseball is not a circus, and that all the fancy accommodations in the world will not make up for a losing team on the field.

The 2006 playoffs begin

Visiting teams won both games this afternoon, reminding us that playing at one's home field has not been particularly advantageous in postseason games of the past few years. (Hence the World Series wins by wild card teams in 2002-2004.) The Twins' loss in the noisy Metrodome was surprising, especially with Johan Santana pitching. In the Bronx, Derek Jeter practically won the game all by himself, hitting two singles, two doubles, and a home run. He also started a crucial double play that stifled what could have been a rally by the Tigers.

October 3, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Military conference in Nicaragua

Defense ministers from most major countries in the Western Hemisphere are meeting in Managua, Nicaragua this week. Donald Rumsfield, under fire back home once again after the release of Bob Woodward's new book, represented the United States. Rumsfield said he was satisfied with the cooperation of Nicaragua's army and police forces in the fight against narcotics trafficking. He expressed concern about possible interference in Nicaragua by Hugo Chavez, but he avoided making any comment about the upcoming elections. The Sandinista candidate, Daniel Ortega, was the nemesis of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. See laprensa.com. Rumsfield's expression of support is important because Nicaragua has experienced political turbulence and massive corruption in recent years, and its fate hangs in the balance in elections to be held next month. There remains the touchy question of what to do with 1,000+ Soviet-built SAM-7 missiles, however. When the Bolivian government turned over such weapons to the United States last year, a major political crisis broke out.

The Nicaragua page has been completed, at last. Also, the Latin America intro page has been updated with a fuller (but still sparse) list of Latin American rock and salsa musicians, with Web links.

More clashes in Oaxaca

The political turmoil continues in the Mexican city of Oaxaca, as protesters have used explosive devices against local banks. A group calling itself the "Armed Revolutionary Organization for the People of Oaxaca" claimed responsibility. See CNN.com. If Gov. Ulises Ruiz does not resign soon, or make some equivalent gesture of accommodation, it is hard to see how the situation can improve.

Brazil airliner crash

Recovery workers have found the black box in the Brazilian airliner that crashed in the Amazon jungle on Saturday, killing all 155 people aboard. It collided with a smaller jet that somehow escaped with only minor damage and managed to land. The blame for the accident has yet to be ascertained. See CNN.com.

October 3, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Fall birds at Bell's Lane

There was an e-mail alert about a rare Eared grebe at the Bell's Lane Bell's Lane yesterday, but it was already gone by the time I got there this afternoon. I did see two birds for the first time this season, however.

• Ruddy ducks (2 M - FOS)
• Pied-bill grebe (FOS)
• Great blue heron
• Chimney swifts
• Tree swallows
• Wood duck (M)
• Phoebe

On Monday I took a drive along Sanger's Lane a couple miles east of town, and saw:

• Bluebirds
• Brown thrasher
• Red-bellied woodpecker
• Flickers (2)
• Cedar waxwings (10+)
• Field sparrow
• Phoebes (2)
• Killdeer
• Common yellowthroat (F)

On Sunday my niece Cathy and I did a short walk along the Occoquan Reservoir south of the charming village of Clifton, and had some pleasant surprises:

• Black-throated green warbler
• Great egret
• Great blue heron
• Common yellowthroat (JM)
• Pine warbler

October 4, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Me & Julio down by the ballpark

Until last Saturday, no major league player who had passed his 48th birthday had ever hit a home run. But then, Julio Franco hit a three-run blast in the first inning at RFK Stadium, putting the Mets up, 4-0. That historic feat put a big smile on us middle-aged "forever young" guys who just don't know when to quit! It also marked the end of the Nationals' rookie pitcher Beltran Perez's string of beginner's luck. Fortunately, I had my camera ready to snap this photo:

Click on this image to see a closeup of Julio Franco hitting a three-run homer.

Twins blow home field advantage

Oakland just defeated Minnesota 5-2 in the Metrodome, which has had a reputation for being a big advantage for the home team because of the indoor noise generation effect. Suddenly those scrappy underpaid underdogs from Up North have stalled, after a remarkable second half comeback. Too bad. So now Oakland is poised to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the three-division format began in 1994 (1995). Somewhat like the Braves, they have earned playoff berths several times in recent years (four), but then choked.

I should take this opportunity to repeat one of my suggestions for a reformatted playoff schedule: In the first round, the first three games should be played at the higher-seeded team's ballpark, i.e., a 3-2 schedule rather than a 2-2-1 schedule. Not fair to the fans in the lower-seeded team's city? Tough. That's why you're supposed to win!

Mike Mussina (15-7) will face Justin Verlander (17-9) in tonight's game at Yankee Stadium. I just hope "Moose" pitches better than he did when I saw him pitch in Baltimore two months ago! Apparently, Randy Johnson's (17-11) sore back is well enough to pitch, and is expected to start in the Friday game in Detroit. He will face Kenny Rogers, who has the Tigers' best win-loss record (17-8). See MLB.com.

Nats release pitchers

The Nationals released pitchers Pedro Astacio, Zach Day, Ryan Drese, Brian Lawrence, Joey Eischen and Felix Rodriguez. See MLB.com. I thought Astacio's strong peformance on August 15 might have merited a second chance, but I fail to see how getting rid of someone as reliable and hard-working as Joey Eischen can be justified. Having been a big part of the Nats' remarkable surge in June 2005 (until he broke his arm), he deserves a lot of credit and appreciation from the team.

Ebbets Field: revised at last!

After countless hours of scrutinizing various data sources and archival photographs, I have updated the Ebbets Field page with new ("dynamic") diagrams. That page is sponsored by Steven Kindborg, who runs KeyMan Collectibles. Just a friendly reminder: Sponsored stadium pages always get priority in my revisions, so if there is one of the remaining stadiums that you'd like to see redone, now is your chance: become a sponsor today! I may add a football version diagram later on, since Ebbets Field was used by the AFPA Brooklyn Dodgers in the 1930s and 1940s. Believe it ... or not! Thanks as always to Bruce Orser for research assistance. Also, friendly salutations to John Pastier, author of Historic Ballparks, who related to me some of his own memories of Ebbets Field.

The mail bag

Thanks to Michael Fronda for calling to my attention a small mistake on the 1976 version of the Yankee Stadium diagram, which has been corrected. I had indicated the distance to short left center field to be 379 feet, whereas it was actually 387 feet until the fence was brought in in 1985. NOTE: Please send such corrections to me via e-mail, rather than posting them on the Guestbook or Stadium impressions pages.

October 4, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Done molting, back to mating

Princess and George have pretty much finished their three-month period of molting, during which they were rather irritable and subdued, i.e., "not in the mood." Even as the birds outside prepare for winter, the birds inside are preparing for yet another round of mating rituals. Princess has resumed chirping and flapping her wings in the window -- "flirting" with the wild birds -- and refurbishing her nest with fresh bits of cotton. Meanwhile, George is acting more aggressively toward Princess, and is practicing to sing once again. He's still a bit rusty, but he'll no doubt be back in top form within a couple weeks or so.

October 4, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Faith, politics, and the GOP

Former Missouri GOP Sen. John Danforth, an ordained Episcopal minister, is touring the country promoting his new book, Faith and Politics: How the Moral Values Debate Divides America and How to Move Forward Together. He basically wants the Republican Party to adopt a more serious approach to solving problems, moving toward the center, rather than catering to the religious right. I am leery of making too many concessions to moderates, who are often blissfully ignorant of impending threats, but I do agree on the need to reestablish a strong center in American politics. Based on a Washington Post background story, I gave two thumbs up to Danforth's efforts on Feb. 2 (2nd item, scroll down). Danforth rejects the notion that he is calling for a "squishy," watered-down version of Christianity that demands nothing of its members. As quoted by the Christian Science Monitor:

I think [Christianity] is basically reconciling. I don't think there is anything squishy about following the admonition of St. Paul to be ministers of reconciliation. ... I don't think there is anything squishy about believing in a God who is bigger than our political agendas and who is the judge of our political agendas.... What is weak is the notion that our faith is the servant of our politics.

As an earnest practitioner of a conciliatory (but unapologetic) approach to politics, that sounds exactly on target to me, and I have no doubt that our party's virtual Founding Father, Abraham Lincoln, would heartily concur. Anyone who would doubt me on this should read Essays on Lincoln's Faith and Politics, by Hans Morgenthau and David Hein (University Press of America, 1983). Nevertheless, Bobby Eberle, who runs gopusa.com, is upset with the former senator for presuming to try "to save GOP from itself." Eberle retorts, "The GOP does not need to be saved from its conservative base. What it needs to be saved from is its leadership which has driven the base to apathy." I think he misses the point. To me, the problem is not trying to get one faction or the other to prevail, but rather trying to get the two factions to see how their respective agendas are best served by constructive collaboration. That is why I think it is imperative to broaden the party's base, which means including fresh, creative voices of conservative thought such as Rod Dreher (see Sept. 6). "You may say I'm a dreamer ... but I'm not the only one."

More generally, this highlights the basic problem the Republicans have in failing to reach out to moderate voters. Year after year, Republicans are losing key elections in states like Virginia where they have a natural advantage. Why? To me, it's pretty obvious that the focus on maximizing turnout among the hard-core conservative base is backfiring badly. So why are party leaders oblivious to this clear pattern of repeated failure?

Speaking of the proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriages in Virginia, which Danforth opposes, I wonder if anyone has responded to the Mark Foley scandal by calling for a constitutional amendment against having sex with pages or interns?

George Allen starts to rebound

It looks like Sen. Allen has weathered the storm that followed his infamous "macaca" gaffe in mid-August. After another small stumble last week, he is now back on message, talking about issues. Today he made a brief, impromptu appearance at nearby Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport; see newsleader.com. On Monday evening, he made a two-minute televised address that was carried by most commercial TV stations around the Commonwealth, and was later shown on C-SPAN. You can see the whole video at Chad Dotson's Commonwealth Conservative blog. I was particularly pleased that Allen issued a sincere mea culpa: "Some of this I brought on myself." Well, that's what I said. Now, back to our regularly scheduled campaign...

For his part, James Webb made sure to alienate an even bigger portion of the Virginia electorate by appearing with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at a campaign fundraising event in Alexandria. See Washington Post. Of course, Mrs. Clinton has a strong, consistent record in making excuses for men who disparage and take advantage of women...

October 5, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Baserunning blooper at Shea

I couldn't believe the replays of Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew getting tagged out at home in the same play in the second inning last night. It ended a certain rally by the Dodgers, probably deciding the game in the Mets' favor. The 6-5 score was closer than I would have expected, and I wonder if the Mets were shaken up by it. MLB.com compares this major league gaffe to the time when two Yankees were thrown out at home in 1985. It is also reminiscent of the time in 1926 when three Dodger base runners got caught on third base simultaneously. Lawrence Ritter tells that tale in Lost Ballparks.

It rained later in the evening in New York, so the Yankees-Tigers game was postponed until this afternoon. In the fourth inning, the Tigers are ahead, 1-0.

Cost overruns for parking

D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams now says the city needs an additional $75 million to pay for additional parking facilities, on top of the $611 million that the city council voted on earlier this year. Now, hold on a minute! His spokesman cited the "need to maximize the economic benefits of the stadium," but the developmental spinoff effects were supposed to come from private investment. See Washington Post.

October 5, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Will Nicaragua build a canal?

At the turn of the last century, a serious alernative route to a canal through Panama was along the San Juan river, which forms the southern border of Nicaragua. It would pass through Lake Nicaragua, and then traverse a mountain range before reaching the Pacific coast. That country's President Enrique Bolanños is urging Nicaraguan voters to approve a referendum to seek funding for building such a canal. It would have a wider channel to permit larger ships to pass from the Pacific to the Caribbean, no doubt taking much traffic away from Panama. It would cost $18 billion and take 12 years to finish -- which are only rough estimates, of course. See BBC. It's very ambitious, especially for a country with a shaky political-economic foundation, but it's the sort of prestige-oriented task that could promote national unity. It may be that such plans were the underlying reason for the border tensions between Nicaragua and Costa Rica late last year.

October 5, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Illegal immigration crackdown

At a symbolic ceremony in Scottsdale, Arizona today, President Bush signed into law a bill which includes $1.2 billion in funding as the first step toward building a 700-mile long fence along the Mexican border. (That doesn't even cover half the total distance, as Jay Leno observed.) Some details have yet to be worked out, however. See Washington Times. It is sad that such a measure was necessary, but it is probably the only way to get the attention of Mexico, where the prevailing attitude is one of haughty dismissal and/or resentment toward the U.S.A.

It will take a lot more than spending Federal money to repair the breach in our southern frontier, however. In Foreign Policy, Peter Skerry writes "How not to build a fence." He notes that the existing fence is a hodgepodge of different sizes and materials, designed for different purposes. He notes, correctly, that the inconsistent approach to policing the border with Mexico reflects the deep ambivalence most Americans have about immigration. This points to the broader dilemma of how to pursue reform of public policies in both Mexico and United States so that human migration is no longer promoted.

Meanwhile, the Herndon, Virginia Police Department is getting involved with enforcing immigration laws under a special program with the Immigration and Custom Enforcement Agency. This policy change was in reaction to last year's unpopular vote by the city council to pay for a day-labor center. The incumbents lost their reelection bids, and the new city council has adopted a stricter stance toward illegal workers. Many of the illegal immigrants are now afraid of the police, and are looking for work in other parts of Northern Virginia. See Washington Post.

It just so happens that, while driving through Annandale on Saturday morning, I saw for myself for the first time a large contingent of immigrant day laborers standing along Little River Turnpike. There were probably 50 or more of them within a three-block span. A police car with its lights flashing was stopped near some of them, but I don't know what that was about.

Fighting smut on TV

Do you ever get the helpless feeling that nothing can be done to reverse the hideous "slouch toward Gomorrah" that is gradually spreading from MTV to the major TV networks? Well, you can start here: the American Family Association compiles complaints about objectionable broadcast TV material. (via Stacey Morris).

October 5, 2006 [LINK / comment]

More fall birds behind SARS

In anticipation of the rainy weather that has now arrived, I took a walk behind the Staunton-Augusta Rescue Squad this morning, and found several interesting birds, including the first Swainson's thrush of the year for me. (This is the first year since I began keeping records ten years ago that I have not seen any Wood thrushes.) Today's highlights:

• Magnolia warblers
• Swainson's thrush (FOY)
• Ruby-crowned kinglets
• Tree swallows
• Downy woodpeckers
• Red-bellied woodpecker
• Black-throated green warbler
• Phoebe
• Red-eyed vireo
• Cape May warbler (F/J) -- back yard

Yesterday I saw a Yellow-bellied sapsucker (JF) in our back yard, the first one this season. For the last five years, the arrival date of that species for me has been amazingly consistent. Downy woodpeckers and Goldfinches continue to show up regularly, as well.

October 6, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Mets, Cards take first two

In the game against the Dodgers last night, Tom Glavine was every bit as dominating on the mound as when I saw him in D.C. on Saturday,* and the Mets won 4-1. They now head to Los Angeles with the confidence of presumptive pennant winners. Like the Twins, the Padres blew their home field advantage. In what may be his last game as a major league pitcher, David Wells gave up just two runs over five innings, but the Padres were shut out by Jeff Weaver and the Cardinals relievers. The Cards thus stand an excellent chance of "baptizing" their new home with a playoff series victory. It's a bit odd that two of the NL teams to make it to the postseason are from the Western Division, which was so mediocre last year.

* I took a photo of Glavine from only 15 feet away as he emerged from the bullpen just before the game began, but he was looking down and the cap covered his face.

Tigers survive in the Bronx

After game one, it looked like the formerly-spectacular team from Detroit was going to go quietly into the night. Not! Between the steady, effective pitching of Justin Verlander (age 23) and the awesome 100+ MPH fastballs of reliever Joel Zumaya (age 21), the cream of the Bronx Bombers lineup was held at bay. The only runs came from Johnny Damon's homer into the right field upper deck, as the Yanks lost, 4-3. Tonight Randy Johnson (age 43) faces Kenny Rogers (age 41); "The Unit" will have to be in his old top form and shrug off any aches and pains if the Yankees are to beat the Tigers in their first-ever postseason game at Comerica Park.

Some TV announcer mentioned that this Yankee team may be the first ever in which the entire lineup has played in the All Star game. There is a downside to acquiring all that top-notch talent, however: Only two of the Yankee regulars have played in more than two World Series as a Yankee; three if you include reserve outfielder Bernie Williams, who joined the Yankees in 1991.

The New York Yankees: An All-Star Lineup

Position	Player	Former team	Yankee since	World Series as Yankee
Pitcher 1	Mike Mussina	Orioles	2001	2
Pitcher 2	Chien-Ming Wang	!	2005	0
Pitcher 3	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	2005	0
Catcher	Jorge Posada	!	1995	6
First base	Gary Sheffield	Braves	2004	0
Second base	Robinson Cano	!	2005	0
Shortstop	Derek Jeter	!	1995	6
Third base	Alex Rodriguez	Rangers	2005	0
Left field	Hideki Matsui	Nomiuri Giants	2003	1
Center field	Johnny Damon	Red Sox	2006	0
Right field	Bobby Abreu	Phillies	2006	0
Designated hitter	Jason Giambi	Athletics	2003	1

As folks in Oakland, Phoenix, and Boston are no doubt aware, three of those players have postseason experience playing against the Yankees! It is nice, nonetheless, that two of those newer guys are are "home-grown," more like the team was in the late 1990s.

Nats seeking new manager

The Washington Nationals have begun contacting potential candidates for the vacant managerial position, and Braves' coach Terry Pendleton is at or near the top of the list. He played for the Braves and Reds, among other teams during the 1980s and 1990s. Other possibilities: Lou Piniella (ex-Devil Rays, Yankees, etc.), Joe Girardi (ex-Marlins), and Dusty Baker (ex-Cubs, Giants). Preliminary talks with Alfonso Soriano are underway as well. See Washington Post.

October 6, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Deadly miners strike in Bolivia

At least 11 miners died in a clash between rival unions over control of a tin mine southeast of Oruru, in the central highlands. Some of them were throwing sticks of dynamite. One group consists of an independent cooperative, and the other is the union recognized by the state-owned mining company, COMIBOL. The cooperative miners apparently instigated the attack, trying to forcibly gain access to richer tin deposits. They were strong supporters of President Evo Morales in his campaign for president last year, and seem to think they are entitled to government support for their mining claims. About 700 policemen were sent to quell the violence. See CNN.com. This sort of incident may be symptomatic of the radical populist style of politics Morales has pursued, encouraging poor people to grab what they can, regardless of the law. The worst fears of Morales's opponents may be coming true.

October 6, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Warner reports on Iraq situation

Sen. John Warner has just returned from a tour to Iraq, and issued a very sober report on the deteriorating security situation. He fears the U.S. forces may be losing control of Baghdad outside the Green Zone as the sectarian violence worsens. He wisely avoids getting into the debate about whether it is a "civil war" or not, since that is a vague term, and the violence has escalated gradually for the past two years. It's more like a clan feud, only on a massive scale. Indeed, U.S. forces were forced to reassume control over large parts of the city after Iraqi police and soldiers proved to be unable to carry out their duties in a fair and efficient manner. In the press conference shown on C-SPAN, Warner complained that the militia forces (mostly Shiite) are operating as death squads, taking people out to garbage dumps to be tortured and/or murdered. As quoted by the Washington Post, he observed:

You do not see them [Iraqi government leaders] taking the levers of sovereignty and pulling and pushing them and doing what is necessary to bring about a situation in Iraq whereby the people are able to live, have sufficient food and fresh water, and have a sense of confidence in their government that they're going forward.

Indeed, as I have often argued, we can't win this war on our own. "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink it." It's the Iraqis' own ball game now. Warner said he didn't think sending more U.S. troops at this point would do any good, and he hinted strongly that we would have to make a fundamental reevaluaton of our strategy in the next two or three months. In other words, either the Iraqis pick up the slack as our forces begin to depart, or the chaos will get worse. Our forces have done about all they can, and if the Iraqi government does not assert full control and disband militia forces very soon, it would be safe to say that our mission will be over -- and not successfully. Warner said he regrets not having scrutinized the preparations for war more thoroughly, another expression of reduced confidence in the Bush administration. Sen. Warner is renowned as one of the most experienced, knowledgeable, and sensible congressional leaders in matters of national security, and his opinion carries a lot of weight. The White House should be worried -- very worried.

Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice also made a visit to Iraq this week, but it was not announced in advance. She met with Prime Minister Maliki, trying to convey the urgency of achieving governmental unity and political order.

October 7, 2006 [LINK / comment]

A's advance to next round

For the first time since 1990, the Oakland Athletics have won a playoff series. Oddly, the Twins outhit the A's in the third and deciding game, 12-8, but Oakland still won by a five-run margin, 8-3. Josh Suchon (via David Pinto) recalls the bizarre ways the A's have blown their nine previous opportunities to clinch postseason series. Meanwhile, there is no joy in Twinville.

Tigers prevail; Yankees go home

I guess I'm as stunned as anyone else that the Yankees choked against Detroit after entering the postseason with so much confidence. Damon and Rodriguez both went hitless in the last two games, and A-Rod was actually batting eighth! Well, at least he wasn't getting booed while playing on the road... Sheffield was not performing much either. No doubt there will be some Major Changes in the Yankee roster during the off-season, and A-Rod is understood to be willing to waive the no-trade clause in his contract. There's no question that the Tigers deserved to win, the way they were playing, so congratulations as they advance to the ALCS for the first time since 1987.

Tiger Stadium lives another day

Because of engineering questions, cost, and other factors, Detroit officials have postponed the planned demolition of Tiger Stadium, so it will remain standing for the next few months at least. See detnews.com (via Maury Brown of SABR)

Buck O'Neil passes away

The famed Negro League player, who missed getting voted into the Hall of Fame by just one ballot earlier this year, died in a hospital bed at the age of 94. See MLB.com. As I noted on the Ken Burns Baseball page, he was an extraordinarily charming and decent fellow who added a lot to that historical documentary series.

October 8, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Padres stay[ed] alive in St. Louis

In the first postseason game ever played at the third incarnation of Busch Stadium, the Cardinals lost. The Padres have only scored four runs in the first three games, but three of them were yesterday, and with Chris Young's pitching, that was enough for a win. It would be interesting to see Mike Piazza play against his former team in New York. He is like Nomar Garciaparra and Frank Thomas, who left their teams just before they went to the World Series.

In the fourth inning of tonight's game, it's 2-2, the first game in this series where both teams have scored more than one run.

UPDATE: San Diego won, 23-13! No wait, that was the Chargers beating the Steelers in Sunday Night Football. The San Diego baseball team lost 6-2, and were thus eliminated, thanks to a four-run rally by the Cardinals in the sixth inning. The Cards will play in Shea Stadium on Wednesday, their third consecutive NLCS appearance.

Mets sweep Dodgers

The way the have dominated the National League all year, it was no surprise that the Mets swept the Dodgers in three games. The Dodgers played well, but were simply outclassed. Even without Pedro Martinez or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, they make it look easy. That kind of depth in a team is pretty scary.

I was impressed by how well two former Nationals played in this series: Marlon Anderson was traded to the Dodgers just over a month ago, and hit seven homers in September, more than he had hit in the previous five months altogether. Endy Chavez was traded to Philadelphia in May 2005 after some disappointing performances, and he didn't do very well there either. This year, in contrast, he has done very well offensively and defensively playing for the Mets. There must be a lesson in there somewhere. I hope Jim Bowden is thinking about it.

Will Joe Torre leave the Yanks?

After the New York Daily News reported that Joe Torre may be replaced as manager by Lou Piniella, several Yankee coaches and players came to his defense. Given all the injuries the team suffered this year, making such a big comeback late in the season was a major accomplishment. See MLB.com. Torre has a low-key style, making you wonder if he has the "fire in the belly" needed to win, but it's hard to pin the frustrations of the past few years on his shoulders. He has had eleven mostly wonderful years in The Bronx, and perhaps he has several more years ahead of him. If you look at the turbulent history of managers under George Steinbrenner, it has been a remarkable tenure. Traditionally, the Yankees had managers who lasted well over a decade: Miller Huggins, Joe McCarthy, and Casey Stengel. Ralph Houk would almost fit into that category. For most of the Steinbrenner Era, in contrast -- from 1973 until 1995 -- only five times did the same guy manage for the Yankees two complete years in a row. Maybe they ought to replace the owner!

October 8, 2006 [LINK / comment]

North Korea goes nuclear

North Korean announced it conducted an underground nuclear test a short while ago, declaring that this will enhance stability in the region. They blamed the U.S. government for making threats against it. The story ran over the AP news wires at 10:54 PM EDT (see Washington Post), and was just reported on the BBC World News. No details are available yet, and confirmation is pending, but it isn't a big surprise. North Korea's economy is crumbling, and the only way it can survive in the short term is by extorting more foreign aid from the Western world. China and Japan had issued sharp warnings to North Korea not to go ahead with the test, and the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton made it clear that there would be very serious repercussions. Now we'll find out what that means...

October 9, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Mexico deplores 700-mile fence

After expressing doubts that it would even be built, Mexican officials are now expressing outrage at the "inhumane" fence that will (presumably*) be built along the U.S.-Mexico border. As reported by CNN.com, "Foreign Secretary Luis Ernesto Derbez called it an 'offense' and said Wednesday his office was considering taking the issue to the United Nations." Huh? Here's a thought: If the Mexican people put half as much effort into improving their own country as they do trying to sneak into ours, their economic growth rate would double!

* Various loopholes attached to the appropriations bill signed by President Bush raise questions about whether the fence will be built as advertised.

Solution: 700-mile ladder?

That's what "Juan Ajob" reports is underway, in response to the U.S. fence construction project. Read it for yourself at gunsnbutter.com.

On a more serious note, I hope that the Mexican government at least starts to take this issue seriously and enacts needed reforms on its side of the border, so that the fence won't have to be built.

October 9, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Flush with thrushes

The deluge finally ended yesterday, and today turned sunny at last, after the fog burned off. I walked over to the trail behind the Staunton-Augusta Rescue Squad, which was quite soggy, and saw an interesting mixture of summer and winter birds, including quite a few thrushes that were devouring berries. I also heard and then saw the first White-throated sparrows of the season. Today's list:

• Ovenbird
• Swainson's thrushes (6+)
• Gray-cheeked thrush
• Red-eyed vireos
• White-throated sparrows (FOS)
• Red-bellied woodpecker
• Goldfinches
• Phoebe
• Ruby-crowned kinglet
• Indigo bunting (JM)
• Plus many Blue jays, Catbirds, etc.

At the Augusta Bird Club meeting this evening, one of the staff members of the Wildlife Center of Virginia showed a Barred owl, an American kestrel, and a Broad-winged hawk. They are unable to return to the wild and therefore used for educational purposes. It was quite a thrill to see them up close. They seem smaller than you might guess.

I have nearly completed the Birding Locations page, which makes it easy to find directions to almost any of the major bird-watching destinations in this area. It will be transferred to the Augusta Bird Club Web site before long.

October 10, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Championship series begin

So, here we go with the next round of games leading up to the October Classic. Now that the Yankees have been prematurely ousted, I suppose I'm rooting for the Tigers. I've been to their new ballpark, and I'm sympathetic to teams that have bounced back from terrible years. (As a Nationals fan, I need to cling to hope for a better future, after all.) Barry Zito and Frank Thomas make for a very imposing adversary, however. "Moneyball"? Don't ask me. I'm more or less neutral on the Mets, but I figure they deserve to go to the World Series after doing so well in the regular season. "Deserve" does not mean an automatic pass, however, and they'd better not ease up.

Root, root, root for the home team

The Cardinals-Padres series was notable for being the first postseason series since 2002 (Giants-Cardinals, NLCS) in which the first three games were won by the visiting team. I have often commented on the desirability of giving higher-seeded teams more of an advantage in the postseason, such as by reformatting the first-round playoffs from a 2-2-1 to 3-2 home-road sequence. That raises the question of just how much of an advantage the home teams get. The facts for the last few years suggest that it's not that much:

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
Wins by home team	19	18	20	16	(7)
Total games	34	38	34	30	(14)
(% home)	56%	47%	59%	53%	(50%)
Wins by home team in final game	5	2	2	2	(3)
Wins by visitors in final game	2	5	5	5	(1)

(NOTE: 2006 data are for the first round playoffs only.)

Interestingly, for the last three years, in only two of the seven postseason series have the home teams won in the final game.

Washington Post looks at Lerners

Monday's Washington Post had a lengthy article on the family of Theodore Lerner, who recently purchased the Washington Nationals. It stresses the "hardball" business practices by which he built a retail development empire in the D.C. suburbs. Another big developer, "Til" Hazel, shares the skeptical eye of the Lerners toward government planners. This is all in the context of the recent disputes between the Lerners and the D.C. government over the construction of the new stadium, especially the parking facilities. There is nothing wrong with a hard-nosed "all-business" approach, but if it is not complemented by a strong commitment to the sport of baseball and to the local community, it can poison the atmosphere of good will upon which any professional sport depends.

Steinbrenner reassures Torre

George Steinbrenner has told Joe Torre that his job as manager is not at risk. However, general manager Brian Cashman's comment that "I think Joe Torre is the right man for this team next year" leaves open the possibility that he may not be the right man for the year after that. See MLB.com.

October 10, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Is Fidel on his death bed?

Raul Castro, who has been serving as provisional leader of Cuba since the end of July, denies rumors that his big brother has terminal cancer. Suspicions have been fueled by the fact that "no new photographs of the leader have been released in three weeks. He was last shown receiving private visits by world leaders during the Nonaligned Movement summit." See CNN.com

The "Fourth Pioneer Congress" of Cuban youth just ended, and the thousand or so children who attended issued a manifesto proclaiming their eternal love for the Jefe Máximo; see Granma.

As Spain's long-time dictator Generalissimo Francisco Franco lay dying for months on end in 1975, Saturday Night Live made a big joke about it. (See answers.com.) Even though the two despots were ideological opposites, the parallels with Castro are quite striking...

October 10, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Photos from Blacksburg

In case you're wondering about the paucity of photos on this blog lately, our Canon video camera was in the shop. It has now been repaired, so I expect to start taking photos of the fall foliage, birds, etc. real soon. In the mean time, I thought it would be nice to reorganize and retouch some of the photos I took in Blacksburg a few years ago. See the new [or newly revised] Blacksburg photos page. It's a very nice, friendly, photogenic town.

[Clockwise from top left: library on Virginia Tech campus, the New River, fall colors north of Blacksburg, and Lane Stadium -- Home of the Hokies!]

October 10, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Allen & Webb debate again

I missed the Allen-Webb debate that was broadcast live last night, but I caught nearly all of it on C-SPAN later on. Some parts got so nasty I had to change the channel. Allen held his own, except for an awkward moment when Webb played "Geography Gotcha," in a tacky retaliation for the way Allen embarrassed him for not knowing where Craney Island was in their first debate last summer. I think Webb was referring to the Sakishima Islands, east of Taiwan. It was not a compelling argument for a challenger to make, and once again Webb blew an opportunity to show he might have more senatorial gravitas than Allen. Born fighting, or born snarling? The incumbent unfortunately took Webb's bait more than once, when he should have shown more poise. It was not one of the finer moments in the annals of American political discourse. See Washington Post.

In the Weekly Standard, Matt Continetti dissects what went wrong in the Allen campaign, concluding that the candidate himself is flawed. Allen does have an interesting personal background, at least, and a sister with quite an axe to grind... (Via David Adesnik, who opines that that "cover story provides a fitting book end to Allen's career as a GOP golden boy and White House hopeful.")

Gloom and doom for Republicans?

If you go by the mainstream media, you must think that the Republicans' political fortunes are spiralling downward as the elections approach. Rush Limbaugh started off whining that all was lost yesterday, but that's just a ironic device he uses to make a point from time to time. You can't deny, however, that the war in Iraq is getting worse. It's almost as if the insurgent factions in Iraq know that America's political will is weakest during a campaign. Meanwhile, reporters keep harping on the stupid Mark Foley scandal, which was obviously planted by Democrat operatives for maximum electoral effect. (That doesn't excuse the misdeed, however, or the failure of Hastert to deal with it promptly.) On ABC's This Week on Sunday, Rahm Emmanuel coyly refused to say whether he knew about the Foley sex messages in advance, just saying he had never seen them, which was virtually admitting he did know. Typical. A story in the Washington Post warns evangelicals may defect from the GOP because of Foley and other things. Politics is cyclical in nature, and to me it wouldn't be surprising to see a large shift in the Democrats' favor, but not necessarily enough to win back one of the houses of Congress.

To offset the GOP malaise, check out the new Guns 'n Butter Web site. It's a lot like The Onion, but with a pronounced right tilt.

October 11, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Lidle dies in N.Y. plane crash

This is one of those times when fact is stranger than fiction. Like most people, I feared the worst when I heard on the radio that a small plane had crashed into a high-rise building in Manhattan this afternoon. I was on my way to a Red Cross blood drive, and after I was done I learned that the plane belonged to Yankee pitcher Corey Lidle, and that he and his flight instructor were confirmed dead a short while later. See CNN.com. To Yankee fans, this was a chilling reminder of catcher Thurman Munson's fatal airplane accident in 1979. Today's tragedy cast a pall over New York, and it's probably a good thing that the Mets-Cards game was rained out, to give New Yorkers a chance to release the stress and compose themselves. I hope all baseball fans say a prayer for Corey Lidle's widowed wife and son.

Tigers pounce on Athletics

If Oakland couldn't win with Barry Zito pitching at home, it's hard to see how they can win this series. They wasted many run-scoring opportunities in the first game, as Nate Robertson and the Detroit relief pitchers kept their cool and held off comeback attempts by the A's in the late innings. Brandon Inge was the batting hero for the Tigers, quite an unexpected role for someone batting ninth! Tonight Justin Verlander outshone Esteban Loaiza (a former Washington National!) on the mound. None of the previous eight teams that lost the first two games at home in a league championship series went on to the World Series. Detroit is on "cruise control" and will have the advantage of extra rest, whether they face the Mets or the Cardinals. It looks like Pudge Rodriguez will get another chance to go to the World Series; he was with the world champion Marlins in 2003.

Attendance at Tuesday night's game was 35,655, which was above the nominal capacity of 34,179 but well below the full capacity of 50,000+ if they opened up the upper deck of the main grandstand and the upper deck of the center field addition built in 1996. I think it is stupid to keep those sections closed during a postseason game, artificially reducing the number of fans. The Raiders played in Oakland (McAfee) Coliseum on October 1, so the stadium crew went to some trouble to cover the upper deck seats -- but why??? I'd bet the extra crowd noise might have helped the A's win.

October 12, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Chavez vows to aid Morales

As Bolivian President Evo Morales faces growing internal pressure, Hugo Chavez has declared he will come to the aid of his ally: "Venezuela will not keep its arms crossed if the Bolivian government and people are attacked from outside or within." Opponents of Morales and his proposed new constitution have staged protests in Santa Cruz in recent weeks, and Chavez has blamed the U.S. Embassy in La Paz plotting to incite dissident action. See CNN.com.

Protest aimed at Peru oil wells

Indigenous groups have launched protests against three oil production facilities in the Peruvian Amazon region, on the grounds that they are suffering from the pollution side-effects. About 40 oil workers are trapped inside the facilities operated by Argentine-owned Pluspetrol, but the company says they are not the ones who caused the mess. As reported by BBC,

The Ministry of Health report found that the water contained high concentrations of hydrocarbons and heavy metals, such as lead, cadmium, mercury and arsenic, and the Achuar people say it is destroying the fragile eco-system in which they live.

October 12, 2006 [LINK / comment]

McCain bashes Clintons

In response to Sen. Hillary Clinton's statement that the North Korean nuclear (?) test was evidence of the "failure" of Bush administration policies, Sen. John McCain reminded everyone of the hopeless accommodative policy pursued by Bill Clinton during the 1990s. As McCain said, the Clinton administration's repeated warnings to North Korea not to take certain steps were routinely ignored, and each time the bad behavior was rewarded with another round of prestige-building negotiations. It was a "carrots-and-no-sticks" policy. See Washington Post.

Clearly, this is a case of political expediency converging with national security strategy. McCain has serious shortcomings in his approach to politics (pandering to the press) and on specific issues (e.g., immigration), but his desire to curry favor with conservatives has reinforced the faltering consensus on foreign policy at a critical moment for the Republican party and for the country. The Democrats' attempts to blame the North Korean provocations on President Bush are simply outrageous; as I note separately. Unfortunately, we may never know the full truth about the Clinton administration's foreign policy misadventures, thanks to "Sandy Burglar."

Mark Warner won't run for prez

Former Virginia governor Mark Warner has decided not to enter the 2008 race for president bcause he "needs to spend more time with his family." The lamest political cliche of all time! I suppose Republicans can breathe a little easier, now that the centrist Democrats have lost one of their leading voices. See washingtonpost.com. Just think, last summer, many folks from the Commonwealth were dreaming about having two Virginians competing for the Highest Office in the next election!

October 12, 2006 [LINK / comment]

North Korea's "smaller bang" *

Since they test fired several ballistic missiles last July, North Korea has been clamoring for attention. Failing to get the United States to take any high-profile actions (covert actions are another matter), the Pyongyang regime felt it had no choice but to go ahead with the nuclear test. But was it just a dud? Virtually all estimates place the yield of the explosive device at well under a kiloton of TNT, compared to about 20 kilotons for the Hiroshima bomb. The low yield may reflect the desire by North Korea to conserve as much of their tiny stockpile of fissionable material as they can. The International Community expressed unanimous condemnation toward North Korea, of course, (see Washington Post), but that really doesn't matter. Anyone with any sense knows that North Korea is the most "evil" regime of the "Axis of Evil," and condemning its actions is beside the point.

In order to get its blackmail agenda back in operation, North Korea needs desperately to achieve one thing: Force the U.S. government to negotiate in a one-on-one setting. Such bilateral talks would greatly enhance North Korea's global prestige. In order to nullify North Korea's high-stakes gambit, the United States must avoid doing anything to justify or reward the nuclear test, which means no talks except in a multilateral format. The Bush administration should resist the demands by many Democrats and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan (how ironic!) to hold immediate bilateral talks, and continue the existing approach of wary detachment, showing no more concern or worry about Kim Jong Il's temper tantrums than is necessary. Fortunately, "staying the course" is one thing the Bush administration has excelled at. Ambassador John Bolton acknowledged that multilateral diplomacy is time-consuming and frustrating, but in this situation that is just fine. Time is on our side, whereas North Korea is desperate to get more extortion money. In the end, they may lash out with some kind of military attack or even an invasion of South Korea, but such a move would be suicidal.

So, what are the fallback options in case (!) diplomacy fails? Apparently, the White House has ruled out any military action against North Korea, so it looks like we are in for an intense period of symbolic sanctions and outraged breast-beating. Milblogger Austin Bay recommends "hermetically sealing" the "Hermit Kingdom." That's fine, but over time, any sanctions will tend to erode, just as they did with Iraq, and corrupt officials in China or Russia will find it very lucrative to look the other way.

What many people fail to appreciate is that the North Korean nuclear test has put the United States in a very favorable diplomatic position. All of a sudden, countries with whom we have had tense, often adversarial relations -- China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea -- are eager to collaborate with us in putting an end to the threat posed by North Korea. As Harold Hutchison notes at strategypage.com, the main consequence will be to reawaken the "sleeping giant" of Japan, which may decide to build its own nuclear weapons. From our perspective, that is fine. We have enough problems around the world already, and would be glad to share the burden of maintaining security in northeast Asia.

* For non-rock music fans, that's an allusion to the Rolling Stones' latest album, A Bigger Bang.

October 13, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Glavine shuts down Cardinals

As usual, Tom Glavine performed flawlessly, holding the Cardinals to zero runs and only four hits over seven innings last night. All the Mets needed was a home run by Carlos Beltran in the sixth inning; it hit the scoreboard at least 25 feet off the ground, and would have gone well over 400 feet. See MLB.com.

All the Tigers need to do is win two home games over the next three days. Without first baseman Sean Casey, however, it is not a sure thing. He suffered a spasm in his calf, tearing the muscle tissue (that's gotta hurt!), so even if he plays in the World Series, he would probably be partially immobilized. I get a cramp in my calf every once in a while, and it is hideously painful. They say lack of potassium may be a factor, so eat more bananas!

Rumors on Soriano's salary talks

Jose Rijo, who works in the Nationals' front office, allegedly told a Dominican Republic newspaper that Alfonso Soriano has turned down an offer of $70 million over five years. Chris Needham opines, "At that price, it's probably a good thing that he's likely to head elsewhere." Indeed, that's about as generous as a rebuilding team can afford to be, and if it's true, the prospects that he will remain in Washington uniform next year continue to dim... The story was also reported on WUSA-TV9 in Washington, but Rijo and other Nationals officials flatly deny it; see MLB.com. In situations such as these, it's best not to take anyone's word at face value...

One of the most enthusiastic of the Nationals bloggers, Farid Rushdi, once knew Cory Lidle, but only by his first name.

The mail bag

Mike Zurawski sends the following ballpark news items: The design of the Twins' new stadium is complicated by the need to incorporate two train stations in the structural foundation. One of the rail lines would pass underneath part of the grandstand, so extra strength is required in case of derailment. startribune.com

According to sfgate.com, the Oakland (?) Athletics are buying up property in Fremont, by an old racetrack off Interstate 880. That raises the likelihood that they will in fact move away from Oakland. Groan...

The Florida Marlins are discussing with local leaders in Pompano Beach the possibility of building a ballpark there, as part of a plan to renovate a local horse racing track. Odd-makers consider it a long-shot... See sun-sentinel

October 13, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Election eve in Ecuador

Voters in Ecuador will go to the polls on Sunday to choose a new president. The leading candidate is Rafael Correa, a left=wing populist who vows to "do away with the lying oligarchy." Not surprisingly, he is accused of having close ties to Hugo Chavez, and his rhetoric sounds like that of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico. Most observers doubt that he will get a majority of votes, however, so there will probably be a second round next month. The campaign has been boisterous and full of sharp rhetoric, indicative of the deep social tensions in Ecuador over the last decade. See BBC.

The last man to be elected president of Ecuador, retired Col. Lucio Gutierrez, was in effect forced to resign by a mass uprising led by Indian organizations in April 2005. After a period of chaos, an interim government set up a framework to return the country to a normal constitutional order. Ecuador is plagued by a very weak political party system, and the large number of parties is confusing to voters, while making it very hard to get a majority to pass legislation in Congress.

October 13, 2006 [LINK / comment]

A deluge of "October surprises"

Corruption? On Capitol Hill??? Yes, I'm afraid it's true. As the Mark Foley mess reminded us last week, one of the main weapons used in electoral politics these days is scandal-mongering. It is obviously no coincidence that most of the revelations of misdeeds by elected officials come in the weeks just before the election. It was reported this week, of all weeks, that Sen. George Allen (R-VA) failed to report stock options on a company he was promoting in his capacity as a public official; see Washington Post. Perhaps in retaliation, or perhaps not, it was learned that Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) made highly quesionable profits off a real estate deal; see Washington Post. By genuine coincidence, in contrast, Rep. Robert Ney pleaded guilty today to corruption. See Washington Post. That scandal -- all of the unsavory dealings with lobbyist Jack Abramoff -- was over a year old.

Perhaps some day it will sink into certain thick skulls that there really was a good reason to prevent growth of the government bureaucracy and resist the temptation to cure social ills through Federal spending.

Speaking of which, Richard Viguerie, one of the fiercest conservative ideologues of the Reagan Era, is plugging his new book Conservatives Betrayed -- How George W. Bush and Other Big Government Republicans Hijacked the Conservative Cause at conservativehq.com. Yet another right-wing Bush-bashing book by a conservative... He recently appeared on C-SPAN. Back in the early 1980s when I was left of center, I viewed Viguerie with particular distaste, likening him to such unsavory right-wing polemicists as R. Emmet Tyrell. It is interesting to get a fresh perspective on someone who has been out of the limelight for many years.

October 14, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Tigers sweep the Athletics

Oakland jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first inning, and added another run in the fourth, but stalled after that, while Detroit gradually clawed their way back on top. Magglio Ordoñez tied the game with a homer into the left field corner in the sixth inning, and won it with a three-run walk-off homer in the ninth. What a perfect way to win the ALCS! Without that blast, which cleared the bullpens and went into the seats, where the outfield fence used to be, it would have become the first extra-inning game in the 2006 postseason. Congratulations to the Tigers and to the city of Detroit, which richly deserves a championship. Veteran Kenny Rogers was at the top of his game last night. Late in his career, he has been given a second chance to prove himself in clutch championship situations, and he passed the test with flying colors -- first against the Yankees and then against the A's. He and Tom Glavine are the only starting pitchers to have allowed no runs in consecutive postseason games since Roger Clemens in 2000; see MLB.com. As a result, Comerica Park becomes the sixth of the fourteen neoclassical / "retro" ballparks to host a World Series.

Mets and Cardinals split

Just when the Mets thought they had the Cardinals on the ropes, they let victory slip through their fingers last night. Now, they're on the defensive, having to win at least one of the three games in St. Louis. Back home again, the Cardinals have taken back the momentum, leading 5-0 in the third inning of Game 3. This will be an appropriate occasion for me to make the touchups in the Busch Stadium III diagram, based on Jonathan Karberg's very detailed and helpful feedback.

For the fifth year in a row, a wild card team will be in the World Series. (In 2002, both teams were wild cards.) That leads us to an obvious question:

Changes in playoff format?

Bud Selig is pondering future format changes in the playoff series, such as having at least one day game for the World Series (yes!) and creating a bigger hurdle for wild card teams, presumably meaning fewer home games. See MLB.com. I strongly support both ideas, and more than once have called for having the first three games in the first round playoffs at home.

More fan impressions

Possibly motivated by his team's winning ways, Cardinal fan James Sutton has added his impressions of past visits to Wrigley Field, Tiger Stadium, and over a dozen other ballparks. You can do so too, after you have registered. Just go to the bottom of any stadium page, and click on the "share your impressions" link.

October 14, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Abimael Guzman is sentenced

For the second time, Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman has been sentenced to life in prison for waging a war of terrorism against Peru. (Because his first trial was conducted in a special anti-terrorism court in which the judges' identities were hidden, human rights organizations called the proceedings unfair.) Guzman had a belated change of heart regarding the use of violence to achieve political ends after he was captured in 1992. Nevertheless, he is not sorry for all the death, destruction, and mayhem he wrought upon Peru: "I am a revolutionary combatant and totally reject being a terrorist." Because of the civil war he launched, about 70,000 people died or "disappeared" in Peru between 1980 and 2000, though some of those people were killed by government forces. See CNN.com. When I first went to Peru in 1994, people would correct me if I used the expressions "rebels" or "guerrillas" to refer to the Shining Path; they made sure I understood that the Shining Path was a terrorist group. Indeed, that group's blood lust and utter disregard for human life put it in a category totally apart from Peru's other insurgent organization, the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, or even from the vicious FARC rebel movement in Colombia. Guzman used to be a philosophy professor, and adopted an extreme Maoist attitude during the 1960s. He is a very intelligent, charismatic, and ruthless leader. He should be thankful that the death penalty has been essentially abolished in Peru, because if anyone deserves to be executed, he does.

October 14, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Webb slants; Allen replies

With three weeks to go, it's starting to look like Jim Webb may be a serious candidate after all, as his TV spots are appearing more frequently. I have not been dismissing outright the possibility of his winning, mind you, but if he does win, it will be "by default," more of a vote against Allen than a vote for Webb. Fortunately, George Allen's campaign Web site has done a pretty good job rebutting the bogus allegations contained in Webb's TV ads.

In general, I would agree with Allen's criticisms of Webb for wanting to taxes, but there is a small problem. Because of the enormous fiscal deficit and the rising cost of the war in Iraq, tax hikes are something that need to be considered, unless Congress figures out how to cut spending.

Steele for Maryland

Now here's a Republican candidate for Senate that I could get excited about: Michael Steele. Not only does he come across as very intelligent and sincere in his television ads, his unapologetic independent stance are very appealing to centrist voters. In Maryland, you're not going to get elected by campaigning as an ideological conservative. Some polls say he is within striking distance of Democrat Ben Cardin, who is as dull as can be.

October 14, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Shrike, eagle, & many sparrows

I joined Allen Larner and several other members of the Augusta Bird Club this chilly morning for a field trip to Swoope and Augusta Springs, in the western foothills of the county. About 55 species were seen altogether, of which the most noteworthy were a Loggerhead shrike * and a Bald eagle. With the bright sun behind us, we had excellent views. We found most of the migratory sparrows that were the main target of the trip, and I saw eight species for the first time this season or year. In a couple cases, I hadn't seen those birds in at least two years. Today's highlights:

• Savannah sparrows (20+)
• Field sparrows (8+)
• White-crowned sparrows (FOS, 8+)
• Phoebes (12+)
• Vesper sparrow (FOY)
• Palm warblers (FOY, 8+)
• Meadowlarks
• Cooper's hawk
• Indigo bunting
• House finches (8+)
• Loggerhead shrike (FOY)
• Bluebirds (5+)
• Goldfinches (2)
• Lincoln's sparrow (FOY)
• Wood ducks (15+)
• Pied-billed grebes (4)
• Yellow-rumped warblers (FOS, 20+)
• Ruby-crowned kinglets (3)
• Great blue heron
• Bald eagle !
• Killdeer
• Kingfisher
• Red-tailed hawk
• Kestrels (3)
• House wren
• Robins (3)
• Carolina wrens
• Tree swallows
• Swamp sparrow (FOS)
• Mallards
• White-throated sparrows
• Blue-headed vireo
• Juncos (FOS, glimpse)
• Downy woodpeckers
• Flicker
• Sharp-shinned hawk
• Towhees

* Shrikes are medium-small songbirds that subsist entirely on the flesh of small animals and insects, much like raptors. They have no talons (sharp claws) with which to impale and kill their prey, so they use thorns or barbed wire for that purpose, often "storing" uneaten food. That's why they are called "butcher birds."

October 16, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Mets storm back in Game 4

Game 4 was a real slugfest, as the Mets won 12-5, with four home runs, including two solo shots by Carlos Beltran, while the Cardinals hit three. David Wright's homer was his first hit in this series, after nine at-bats in the first three games. The lopsided win was a dramatic turnaround for a team that seemed on the verge of letting a historic season of triumph slip through their fingers. Who knows, perhaps the Mets got overconfident about reaching the World Series, or perhaps the loss of Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez is hurting them more than we suspected. One thing is for sure, no one expected starting pitcher Oliver Perez to perform so well in Game 4. He had a 3-13 record during the regular season, and it seemed like the Mets were about ready to give up when they put him in as starter. Now the series is tied, 2-2, and it's just like they're starting over.

Game 5 is rained out

Thanks to an enormous storm system sweeping up from Texas through Tennessee (heading this way), Game 5 will be played tomorrow, the second time in this year's NLCS that bad weather forced a postponement. That will give Tom Glavine more time to rest, it will give the Tigers an even bigger advantage in terms of rest, and it will give me more time to finish the corrections on the Busch Stadium III diagram.

A's fire Ken Macha

To me, it's quite an achievement that an underfunded, poorly attended team like the Athletics has made it to the postseason so often. Nevertheless, the franchise honchos expect even more, and today general manager Billy Beane announced that manager Ken Macha was fired after four years. Apparently there was "lack of communication" and personality issues with some of the players. See MLB.com.

October 16, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Ecuador election goes to Round 2

Two separate exit polls in Ecuador show that Alvaro Noboa, a wealthy populist, has a lead of about two percent over leftist Rafael Correa, but neither man has even 30 percent of the total vote in a crowded field of candidates. (Unlike other countries where an outright majority is required, in Ecudador, only forty percent is needed to be elected in the first round.) There will be a second round election on November 26. Correa, who has a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Illinois, had a brief (three-month) and stormy tenure as finance minister under the provisional government of Alfredo Palacios. In a distrubing sign that he intends to follow in the footsteps of Mexico's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Correa demanded the removal of the head of the Organization of American States' election observer team on the grounds that alleged irregularities were ignored. He also accused the United States of trying to block his election. Correa wants to lead "citizens' revolution" to replace the political establishment, a common goal expressed by many outsiders in Latin America. Noboa has surged in the polls in recent weeks, thanks apparently to his frequent unabashed invokation of God. He has been handing out much-needed items such as personal computers at his rallies, an old tradition in Latin American politics, where the votes of poor people are easily bought. Noboa also "says he will use his business skills to bring Ecuador's poor into the middle class." See Washington Post or CNN.com.

For the United States, the most pressing issue is maintaining the lease on the air base that was established for anti-narcotics surveillance a few years ago. Correa says he would not renew the lease when it expires in 2009, but the United States would no doubt be willing to pay a higher "rent" to keep it going. In Spanish, the word "correa" means "belt," and Correa used a belt as a prop in his campaign appearances, threatening to lash corrupt politicians. ¡Qué gracioso! Some people compare him to Hugo Chavez, but the young, well-educated firebrand reminds me much more of Alan Garcia when he was president of Peru from 1985 to 1990. On the plus side, the elections were conducted in an atmosphere of relative tranquility, a marked improvement from the deep turmoil of last year and earlier this year.

October 16, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Sen. Warner endorses Sen. Allen

In a gratifying display of party unity, Sen. John Warner addressed the voters of Virginia in support of his junior colleague Sen. George Allen during a two-minute televised address this evening. (Video available at georgeallen.com.) Warner stressed that our country's security is at stake in these elections, in a very sober and sincere tone. To counteract the mistaken impression that voting for Republican candidates means blind affirmation of the Bush administration policies, he reminded everyone of his own independent, critical stance on the Iraq war issue. Sen. Warner deserves huge credit for playing the difficult dual roles of wise elder statesman and party loyalist. Left-liberal cartoonists and op-ed writers have recently been hyping the false notion that any time President Bush or other Republican leader talks about the threat posed by Islamic terrorists, it constitutes "fear-mongering." Sorry, folks, there really is a threat out there, and a strategic retreat as advocated by John Murtha and Jim Webb would only make things worse.

The big headline in Sunday's Washington Post proclaimed "Allen and Webb in Virtual Tie," almost as if they were relishing the prospect of a Webb victory. A degree of skepticism toward the putatively "objective" polls published in the mainstream media is certainly warranted, but the polls showing Tim Kaine ahead of Jerry Kilgore almost one year ago turned out to be accurate. My doubts were misplaced.

Instapundit is down on GOP

Glenn Reynolds had an unusally long and thoughtful post on Saturday: "A GOP PRE-MORTEM" began by citing the gloom John Hinderaker and other conservative bloggers about recent poll numbers, and then listed these warning signs of policy failure by the Republicans: (Dates are blog links to my take on each of those events as they happened.)

1. The Terri Schiavo affair (Mar. 22, 2005)
2. The Harriet Miers debacle (Oct. 23, 2005)
3. The Dubai Ports disaster (Feb. 28)
4. Immigration (Mar. 24) to me, the biggest issue of all)
5. Rep. William Jefferson (May 31; cash in freezer, remember?)
6. Rep. Mark Foley (Oct. 2)

I share Glenn's libertarian leanings to some extent, but I take religious and social issues more seriously than he does. Sadly, there are indications of the gloom he expresses even here in rock-solid "red state" Virginia. Well, at least some of us did our level best to speak out on these and other issues where the Republicans have stumbled over and over again. (In retrospect, I should have been more critical of the way those first two issues were handled.) For some reason, the party leadership seems utterly deaf to such concerns. Stay tuned for "the perfect storm" of bitter recriminations...

Capito in W. Virginia

West Virginia is traditionally a Democrat state, and the only Republican member of congress at present is Shelley Moore Capito. It speaks volumes that her radio campaign ads (broadcast here in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia) take pains to criticize President Bush over the immigration issue. Good for her!

October 17, 2006 [LINK / comment]

New book: Historic Ballparks

This just came in the mail today: Historic Ballparks: A Panoramic Vision, by John Pastier. It is one of those hefty "coffee table" books, chock full of photographs, many of which I had never seen before, as well as the 1950s-era diagrams that used to appear in The Mutual Baseball Almanac series, plus a set of 3-D architectural sketches. It also includes quite a bit of descriptive text, as well as tables of basic data. Unlike most other books of its genre, this one has strong coverage of minor league ballparks. For hardcore stadium geeks like me, it is a sheer delight from cover to cover. I already have several historical baseball stadium books, and have browsed through several others in bookstores, but this won is superior to the rest in several respects. It was published in June, and includes RFK Stadium in its second incarnation as the home of the Washington Nationals. My only complaint is the choice of stadium photos to put on the cover: Memorial Coliseum, which I regard as "an abomination." The author of the book contacted me recently. In case you're wondering, that's why I haven't finished the Busch Stadium III diagram revisions yet.

Cardinals knock Glavine out

It's been quite an intense, close-fought game so far. The Cardinals rallied to take a 3-2 lead in the fifth inning, proving that 40-year old Tom Glavine is only human after all. After he was replaced, the Cardinals loaded up the bases with nobody out, and the Mets were lucky that no more runs scored that inning. As of the seventh inning stretch the Cards are up, 4-2.

UPDATE: The Cardinals hang on to win, 4-2, and now lead the NLCS, 3 games to 2. Not a bad way to inaugurate Busch Stadium III in its first postseason. But could there be more games here this year?

The mail bag

Still more ballpark news items from Mike Zurawski: Construction on the future home of the Washington Nationals is "one day ahead of schedule," according to Allen Y. Lew, of the D.C. Sports and Entertainment Commission. A solution to the parking quandary is nowhere in sight, however. See Washington Post. A letter to the editor from Ralph Nader appeared in yesterday's Post; he criticized (rightly, in my view) Mayor Williams request for $75 million more to pay for parking facilities, but his suggestion that it's not too late to stop the construction project and simply go back to RFK Stadium is quite unrealistic.

"On Friday, the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum Authority unanimously approved a lease extension that should keep the A's at McAfee Coliseum until 2010, possibly longer, and add $2.8 million to public coffers." See insidebayarea.com.

The Twins are considering options for heating their future stadium, which would come in very handy if the team keeps making postseason appearances. Hey, it gets pretty nippy outside in the northern latitudes during October! See startribune.com. Previous attempts at heated seating, such as at Candlestick Park, were a big bust.

October 18, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Busch Stadium III

Too late for the NLCS, but perhaps not too late for the World Series (!), the Busch Stadium III diagram has been revised, with several significant corrections to my original rendering. One addition is a second profile, showing how the four decks are stacked tightly on top of one another in the left field corner. Many, many thanks to Jonathan Karberg for his detailed descriptions of the stadium's layout, based on first-hand inspection. Photographs are very useful for purposes of getting accuracy in the diagrams, but there is just no substitute for first-hand inspection.

Piniella joins Cubs

Lou Piniella has been hired as manager of the Chicago Cubs (see MLB.com), who deny rumors that they are about to sign Alexander Rodriguez as well. Wouldn't that be something to see in the Windy City? And will he still be a guest commentator on FOX for the World Series?

Nats keep St. Claire

Pitching coach Randy St. Claire will remain with the Nationals for the 2007 season. He earned a stellar reputation during the 2005 inaugural season, when pitching was the Nats' strong point, but this year was a different story. Whoever becomes the team's manager (Joe Girardi?) will have discretion to keep or replace the other coaches, but St. Claire's job is secure. See MLB.com.

I noticed there is another former National in this year's playoffs: outfielder Preston Wilson, who was acquired from the Colorado Rockies in July 2005 but was allowed to go at season's end under the free agency terms. Playing for the St. Louis Cardinals this year he has batted .263 and hit 17 home runs, compared to .261 and 25 home runs last year.

Mets' back to the wall

With more postseason experience under their belts, I think the Cardinals will have a slight advantage over the Mets in Game 6 tonight and (if necessary) Game 7. With Chris Carpenter pitching for the Cards, it will be hard for the Mets to avoid an ignominious defeat, even with home field advantage. The absence of Pedro Martinez and "El Duque" from their rotation may prove decisive after all.

UPDATE: Thanks "mainely" to the steady pitching of John Maine, who gave up only two hits in 5 2/3 innings, the Mets stayed alive and forced a Game 7 tonight by beating the Cardinals. For the second straight day, the home team won by a score of 4-2!

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Welcome to new registrants Sam Leverenz, "a rabid Cardinals Fan" and Frederick Nachman, a White Sox fan who has corresponded with me previously. I have a feeling that "Tuhlyak Tuhlyak" and "bely832new bely832new" are not real people, so they have been deleted from the Guestbook. I may have to place additional hurdles in the registration process to block such spam, so register today to avoid the hassle.

October 18, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Venezuela vs. Guatemala at U.N.

After two days of repeated ballots cast for the Latin American seat in the U.N. Security Council, there is still a deadlock between Venezuela and Guatemala. Hugo Chavez refuses to back down, and prospects for a compromise country emerging seem slim at this point, so the stalemate could continue for several more days. The two-year rotating term begins in January. See washingtonpost.com.

Ecuador counts the votes

Alvaro Noboa leads Rafael Correa by three percentage points, without almost 80 percent of the votes counted. Even though it doesn't really matter who gets the most votes since it will go to a second round in any event, many of Correa's supporters are already crying "fraud." The Brazilian company that is handling the electronic tabulation denies any irregularities. The BBC report explains that Noboa comes from Guayaquil, the commercial port city.

Student riots in Chile

The dispute over education policy in Chile has flared up again, as police arrested over 100 students after rocks were thrown at them. President Michelle Bachelet's government gave into most of the demands last June, but students complained that the promised reforms were not being implemented quickly enough. BBC. It's an ironic sign of Chile's success in socio-economic development that unruly youngsters get coddled and then demand even more -- just like here in the U.S.A.!

Peru ex-pres. Paniagua dies

The former interim president of Peru, Valentin Paniagua, died of complications following heart surgery. He was 69. Paniagua was chosen by Peru's Congress to lead the country after Alberto Fujimori resigned in disgrace while in Japan in 2000, and served until Alejandro Toledo won the election in the following year. He was widely praised for guiding the country back to a normal democratic status after years of increasingly heavy-handed rule by the once-popular Fujimori. See CNN.com.

October 18, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Back yard harvest season

This is in part a lame excuse to start using our recently-repaired digital video camera once again (thanks to the folks at Canon for quick turnaround), but it is also a significant agricultural milestone. This year the only vegetables we planted in our "micro-garden" were sweet potatoes, a.k.a. "camotes" en español. Believe it or not, we dug up almost five pounds worth of the tubers, from a patch of dirt that was barely two square feet. Just think what the total yield would be on an acre of land!

October 18, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Rush is down on Instapundit

Rush Limbaugh is mad as heck at those gloom-and-doomers who think the Democrats are going to win next month. What has him most irked is the "GOP Pre-Mortem" blog post I mentioned on Monday. For a guy who is supposedly at the "cutting edge of societal evolution," Rush's professed lack of awareness of who does the Instapundit blog was certainly strange. In his own defense, Glenn Reynolds (the blogger's name, for those of you in Rio Linda or the "EIB Southern Command") cited James Taranto: "[T]here is something to be said for punishing the party in power if its performance has been subpar."

Personally, I am exhausted from years of haranguing by Rush and especially Sean Hannity that Nancy Pelosi, Hillary, et al. will turn our proud nation into a wimpy, appeasing socialist cesspool if they took over Congress. They'd probably like to do so, of course , but our government has enough checks and balances to prevent outright self-destruction. Of course, the hubris-afflicted folks like Karl Rove who prevail in Republican circles these days think checks and balances is a quaint notion.

For what it's worth, I have every intention of voting Republican, and I hope all public-spirited conservatives do as well. I want them to win, but I'm not going to freak out if they lose. Maybe, just maybe, some Republican officials may notice that the declining motivation of thoughtful conservatives in this election means that the party needs to slap itself in the collective face. As long as campaigns remain focused on "getting out the base" via dumbed-down, crass, negative TV ads, I will have a hard time getting excited about our side's candidates.

October 19, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Fenty's parking proposal fails

Now here's a classic case of role reversal: D.C. Council member and presumptive next mayor Adrian Fenty submitted an alternative parking plan, but it was narrowly rejected by his colleagues. They disputed his claims that the $56 million plan to build two garages north of the stadium and a smaller underground garage to the south would not violate the $611 million spending cap. As a last resort, they might have to pave over five acres of nearby junk land, which would be a setback for neighborhood development plans. Fenty used to be the staunchest opponent of public funding for stadiums, but as election day nears and he envisions the world from the perspective of the mayor, he is now adopting a more pragmatic attitude. See Washington Post.

Tigers lick their chops

While the Mets and Cardinals slug it out in Game 7 tonight at Shea Stadium, the Tigers are patiently resting and waiting for their chance to pounce. Comerica Park will host Game 1 of the World Series on Saturday night. A Washington Post article highlighted the big morale boost the city of Detroit has received thanks to the Tigers' amazing success this year. Average home attendance this year was 32,000, helping local bars, restaurants, and other businesses.

October 19, 2006 [LINK / comment]

What's the matter with Kansas? *

In what could be construed as yet another effort by the mainstream media to discourage GOP turnout, the Washington Post reported today on several former Republican officials in Kansas who are running as Democrats this year. Apparently, the Kansas Republican Party is now under the control of the Religious Right, pushing to halt or restrict teaching of evolution in public schools. Groan... Maybe Margaret Atwood's apocalyptic vision of a future America taken over by hypocritical fundamentalists -- A Handmaid's Tale -- should not be dismissed outright after all...

* For you folks in Rio Linda, that's the name of a book by leftist author Thomas Frank, which I reviewed on Oct. 30, 2004. If that Post article really is an accurate portrayal of Kansas politics, Frank may deserve some credit. (I still think he has a hopelessly jaundiced view of capitalism and freedom, however.) Pay close attention to Sen. Sam Brownback, a possible contender for Higher Office who is treated with particular scorn in that book.

Allen vs. Webb; Dubya vs. Bubba

President Bush appeared at a campaign rally with Sen. George Allen in Richmond today, while his predecessor campaigned for James Webb in Northern Virginia. The Senate race here in the Commonwealth is really drawing national attention. This evening's PBS News Hour focused on the Senate race in Ohio, where Republican incumbent Mike DeWine is struggling hard to stay in office.

Try as he might to keep his focus on the real issues such as national security and education reform, Sen. Allen had a hard time with NBC reporter David Gregory at the Manassas Regional Airport yesterday. Gregory, who is tall enough to play in the NBA, kept needling Allen over the "macaca" controversy, showing no interest whatsoever in policy positions. Typical MSM... Steve Kijak was there and has the details. (I was at that airport in August, when they had an exhibition featuring a B-17 Flying Fortress.

Misleading polls??

Believe it or not, even the most scientifically rigorous public opinion surveys can be inaccurate some times. The Riehl World View blog (via Instapundit) reminds us of some big mistakes made by the Zogby poll just before the 2002 election. Guess which direction they erred? Moral of the story: Don't worry too much about poll numbers, but don't get too complacent, either.

October 20, 2006 [LINK / comment]

Cardinals outlast the Mets

It was the only postseason series that went all the way so far this year (three of the other five series were sweeps), and it fully lived up to the drama inherent in such decisive make-or-break games. If this were one of those "storybook endings," the hero of Game 7 would have been Endy Chavez (a former National!), whose amazing "snowcone" catch at the left field wall in the sixth inning turned what would have been a two-run homer by Scott Rolen into a double play. If the Mets had gone on to win, that would have been one of those historic plays that people would talk about for years to come, like Willie Mays robbing Vic Wertz of a sure inside-the-park home run at the Polo Grounds in 1954. In the bottom of that inning, Chavez had a chance to capitalize on the momentum with the bases loaded, but failed. Instead, it was Cardinal catcher Yadier Molina who grabbed the unexpected glory in the top of the ninth inning with his home run to the same spot in left field as before but a little further. (Endy -- Yadier -- Where do those names come from?) But that was just a single moment, whereas the major credit should go to Jeff Suppan, who held the Mets to only one run in seven-plus innings. Proving they were indeed worthy contenders, the Mets came roaring back with the bases loaded in the ninth, but Adam Wainright's vicious curve balls flummoxed the next batters. I was expecting another miracle, but alas, there was no joy in Queens; the mighty Carlos Beltran was called out on strikes. See MLB.com.

Overdue teams, new ballparks

This will be a repeat of the 1968 World Series, when the team led by Denny McClain (31-6!) and Al Kaline prevailed over the team led by Bob Gibson (22-9) and Curt Flood. The Year of the Pitcher, just before the four-team expansion. It was also the year of the Tet Offensive, the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy, social turmoil around the world, and the first manned mission to orbit the moon. The same two teams faced each other in the 1934 World Series, when the Cardinals won by the same 4-3 margin.

Many people have remarked that neither of the teams have won the World Series in over 20 years. For me, there is another remarkable aspect to this year's World Series, that both teams' stadiums are relatively new: six and a half years for Det