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Presidential
election
forecast

FUN FACT:

Nearly all reputable public opinion polls forecast that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election.


Roll mouse over the states to see their number of electoral votes and which party has won the presidential races in them since 2008. Click to see the effect of a change in that state's party choice.

ELECTORAL VOTE TOTALS

Biden (Democrat): 285

Trump (Republican): 253
Pres Election

Alabama
Electoral votes: 9
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Alaska
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Arizona
Electoral votes: 11
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Arkansas
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

California
Electoral votes: 55
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Colorado
Electoral votes: 9
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Connecticut
Electoral votes: 7
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Delaware
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Dist. of Columbia
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Florida
Electoral votes: 29
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Georgia
Electoral votes: 16
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Hawaii
Electoral votes: 4
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Idaho
Electoral votes: 4
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Illinois
Electoral votes: 20
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Indiana
Electoral votes: 11
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Iowa
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Kansas
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Kentucky
Electoral votes: 8
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Louisiana
Electoral votes: 8
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Maine
Electoral votes: 4 *
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Maryland
Electoral votes: 10
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Massachusetts
Electoral votes: 11
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Michigan
Electoral votes: 16
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Minnesota
Electoral votes: 10
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Mississippi
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Missouri
Electoral votes: 10
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Montana
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Nebraska
Electoral votes: 5 *
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Nevada
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

New Hampshire
Electoral votes: 4
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

New Jersey
Electoral votes: 14
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

New Mexico
Electoral votes: 5
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

New York
Electoral votes: 29
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

North Carolina
Electoral votes: 15
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

North Dakota
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Ohio
Electoral votes: 18
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Oklahoma
Electoral votes: 7
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Oregon
Electoral votes: 7
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 20
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Rhode Island
Electoral votes: 4
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

South Carolina
Electoral votes: 9
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

South Dakota
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Tennessee
Electoral votes: 11
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Texas
Electoral votes: 38
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Utah
Electoral votes: 6
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Vermont
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Virginia
Electoral votes: 13
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

Washington
Electoral votes: 12
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: DEM

West Virginia
Electoral votes: 5
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP

Wisconsin
Electoral votes: 10
2008 choice: DEM
2012 choice: DEM
2016 choice: GOP

Wyoming
Electoral votes: 3
2008 choice: GOP
2012 choice: GOP
2016 choice: GOP



Presidential elections since World War II

Year Democrats Republicans
Convention location Presidential Nominee Vice Pres. Nominee Popular vote % Electoral votes Convention location Presidential Nominee Vice Pres. Nominee Popular vote % Electoral votes
1948 Philadelphia Harry Truman Alben Barkley 49.5% 303 Philadelphia Thomas Dewey Earl Warren 45.1% 189
1952 Chicago Adlai Stevenson John Sparkman 44.4% 89 Chicago Dwight Eisenhower Richard Nixon 55.1% 442
1956 Chicago Adlai Stevenson Estes Kefauver 42.0% 73 San Francisco Dwight Eisenhower Richard Nixon 57.4% 457
1960 Los Angeles John Kennedy Lyndon Johnson 49.7% 303 # Chicago Richard Nixon Henry C. Lodge 49.6% 219
1964 Atlantic City Lyndon Johnson Hubert Humphrey 61.0% 486 San Francisco Barry Goldwater William Miller 38.4% 52
1968 Chicago Hubert Humphrey Edmund S. Muskie 42.7% 191 Miami Beach Richard Nixon Spiro Agnew 43.4% 301
1972 Miami Beach George McGovern Thomas Eagleton * 37.5% 17 Miami Beach Richard Nixon Spiro Agnew 60.7% 520
1976 New York Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale 50.0% 297 Kansas City Gerald Ford Robert Dole 48.0% 240
1980 New York Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale 41.0% 49 Detroit Ronald Reagan George H. W. Bush 50.7% 489
1984 San Francisco Walter Mondale Geraldine Ferraro 41.0% 13 Dallas Ronald Reagan George H. W. Bush 58.8% 525
1988 Atlanta Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen 45.7% 111 New Orleans George H. W. Bush Dan Quayle 53.4% 426
1992 New York Bill Clinton Al Gore 42.3% 370 Houston George H. W. Bush Dan Quayle 37.4% 168
1996 Chicago Bill Clinton Al Gore 49.2% 379 San Diego Robert Dole Jack Kemp 40.7% 159
2000 Los Angeles Al Gore Joe Lieberman 48.4% 266 Philadelphia George W. Bush Richard Cheney 47.8% 271
2004 Boston John Kerry John Edwards 48% 252 New York George W. Bush Richard Cheney 51.0% 286
2008 Denver Barack Obama Joe Biden 52.9% 364 St. Paul John McCain Sarah Palin 46% 174
2012 Charlotte Barack Obama Joe Biden 51% 332 Tampa Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 47% 206
2016 Philadelphia Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 48.6% 227 ## Cleveland Donald Trump Mike Pence 46.5% 304 ##
2020 Milwaukee Wilmington Joe Biden Kamala Harris ??% ??? Charlotte Jacksonville? Donald Trump Mike Pence ??% ???

NOTES: * Early in the 1972 campaign, Thomas Eagleton was replaced as Democratic vice presidential candidate by Sargent Shriver. (Winners' names in bold face.)
# In 1960, 14 electors who were pledged to Kennedy and one pledged to Nixon "defected," casting their 15 votes for Harry F. Byrd.
## In 2016, 2 electors who were pledged to Trump and 5 electors who were pledged to Clinton "defected," casting their votes for others. Otherwise, Trump would have won 306 electoral votes and Clinton would have won 232 electoral votes.

SOURCES: Routledge Historical Atlas of Presidential Elections, World Almanac and Book of Facts: (2012 and 2017), wikipedia.org


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