Clem's Baseball ~ Baseball cities

Background

Many of the biggest controversies on the business side of Major League Baseball involves demographics and the geographic distribution of other professional sports franchises. If a particular franchise is failing financially, should it be allowed to relocate to a new city, and if so, which one? If a new stadium is to be built, how big should it be in terms of seating capacity, and where should it be located? Both issues arose during the prolonged process by which the former Montreal Expos franchise finally relocated to Washington, D.C. in 2005, and changed its name to the "Nationals"; see the Washington Nationals page. It is also pertinent to the ongoing discussions about the possibility of relocating the Oakland Athletics to Las Vegas, Nevada. The following table highlights cases where attendance has been growing (or declining) at a rate substantially higher than (or less than) than average. It also highlights cases where 2022 attendance relative to stadium capacity was either significantly greater or less than average. Some of these data are summarized in a graph and map at the bottom of this page.

NOTE: The "log-linear" growth rates are based on 10 or 11 years of data, and are therefore more meaningful than growth rates that merely compare the beginning year to the final year, such as the 2010-2020 population growth figures. They are simply the slope of a regression line of the natural logarithm of each year's data, using an arbitrary increment (e.g., 1, 2, 3, ...) as the independent variable. Since there was NO public attendance at regular-season baseball games during the 2020 covid-19 emergency, attendance growth trends for the past decade are based on 2010-2019 rather than 2010-2020.

City (Team) (Miles between stadiums)	Population (2020 MSA*)	Annual population growth rate (2010-2020)	Professional sports franchises (2023)	Major League Baseball
New York (10)	20,140,470	0.7%	2	2	2	3	89,445	5.8	3.8%	-0.8%	5.7	78.7%
(Mets)	42,136	2.4	2.9%	0.2%	2.6	75.1%
(Yankees)	47,309 ( + )	3.4	2.4%	-1.5%	3.1	81.8%
Los Angeles-Anaheim (32)	13,200,998	0.3%	2	2	2	2	101,517	6.7	3.7%	0.7%	6.3	76.8%
(Dodgers)	56,000 ( - )	3.6	2.8%	2.1%	3.9	85.1%
(Angels)	45,517	3.1	5.0%	-0.8%	2.5	66.7%
Chicago (10)	9,618,502	0.2%	2	1	1	1	81,604	4.8	2.6%	-0.5%	4.6	70.0%
(Cubs)	41,363	3.0	1.6%	1.0%	2.6	78.1%
(White Sox)	40,241	1.8	3.7%	-3.0%	2.0	61.6%
Dallas--Fort Worth (Rangers)	7,637,387	2.0%	1	1	1	1	40,000	2.7	-1.5%	-3.5%	2.0	62.1%
Houston (Astros)	7,122,240	2.0%	1	1	1	0	41,000	2.2	-1.3%	4.6%	2.7	81.0%
Washington (Nationals)	6,385,162	1.5%	1	1	1	1	41,376	2.4	-7.1%	2.5%	2.0	60.5%
Philadelphia (Phillies)	6,245,051	0.5%	1	1	1	1	42,901	2.7	8.9%	-7.0%	2.3	65.5%
Miami (Marlins)	6,138,333	1.1%	1	1	1	1	37,446	1.5	2.7%	-6.8%	0.9	29.9%
Atlanta (Braves)	6,089,815	1.6%	1	1	1	0	41,149	2.4	-1.5%	0.2%	3.1	93.9%
Toronto, Canada (Blue Jays)	5,928,040	1.8%	1	1 *	1	1	49,282	2.4	1.2%	3.8%	2.7	66.5%
Boston (Red Sox)	4,941,632	0.9%	1	1	1	1	37,755	3.0	1.9%	-0.7%	2.6	85.8%
Phoenix (Diamondbacks)	4,845,832	1.6%	1	1	1	1	48,359	2.1	-3.6%	0.2%	1.6	41.0%
San Francisco-Oakland (17)	4,749,008	1.0%	? 2 ?	1	1	1	88,762	4.9	-2.0%	-0.5%	3.3	45.5%
(Giants)	41,915	3.2	-1.4%	-0.9%	2.5	73.1%
(Athletics)	46,847	1.6	-3.1%	0.4%	0.8	20.8%
Detroit (Tigers)	4,392,041	0.2%	1	1	1	1	41,083	2.5	5.1%	-5.4%	1.6	47.3%
Montreal, Canada (Expos 1969-2004)	4,027,100	1.3%	0	1 *	0	1			0.1%
Seattle (Mariners)	4,018,762	1.7%	1	1	0	1	47,929	2.0	-4.8%	1.1%	2.3	58.9%
Minneapolis-St. Paul (Twins)	3,690,261	1.3%	1	1	1	1	38,544	2.4	7.4%	-5.2%	1.8	57.7%
San Diego (Padres)	3,298,634	0.7%	1	0	0	0	40,222	2.2	-0.7%	1.1%	3.0	91.7%
St. Louis (Cardinals)	2,820,253	0.0%	1	0	0	1	44,494	3.4	1.1%	0.9%	3.3	92.1%
Tampa--St. Petersburg (Rays)	3,175,275	1.5%	1	1	0	1	25,025 ( + )	1.4	4.6%	-4.7%	1.1	55.7%
Baltimore (Orioles)	2,844,510	0.5%	1	1	0	0	45,791	2.0	-6.0%	-2.4%	1.4	36.9%
Denver (Rockies)	2,963,821	1.7%	1	1	1	1	50,144	2.8	-1.2%	0.5%	2.6	63.9%
Pittsburgh (Pirates)	2,370,930	0.1%	1	1	0	1	38,753	2.0	-2.2%	-1.7%	1.3	40.1%
Cincinnati (Reds)	2,256,884	0.6%	1	1	0	0	43,891	2.1	-1.4%	-3.3%	1.4	39.3%
Cleveland (Indians)	2,088,251	0.1%	1	1	1	0	34,788	1.7	-6.1%	2.2%	1.3	46.0%
Kansas City (Royals)	2,192,035	0.8%	1	1	0	0	37,903	1.9	0.8%	1.1%	1.3	41.6%
Milwaukee (Brewers)	1,574,731	0.1%	1	1	1	0	41,700	2.7	5.0%	-0.6%	2.4	71.7%
OTHER POTENTIAL MLB CITIES:
Orlando, Florida	2,673,376	2.5%	0	0	1	0
Charlotte, North Carolina	2,660,329	1.9%	0	1	1	1
San Antonio, Texas	2,558,143	2.0%	0	0	1	0
San Juan, Puerto Rico (Expos 2003-2004)	2,448,000	-1.2%	0	0	0	0
Portland, Oregon	2,512,859	1.4%	0	0	1	0
Las Vegas, Nevada	2,265,461	1.7%	? ?	1	0	1
Nashville, Tennessee	1,989,519	2.1%	0	1	0	1
Other cities with pro sports franchises:			0	4	6	7
TOTALS			30	32 (+2)	30	32		94.9			84.5
ASTERISKS / KEY:	* Metropolitan Statistical Area	* Canadian Football League ? ? : As of mid-2023, the Oakland Athletics are considering relocation to Las Vegas, Nevada, perhaps after the 2024 season. ( + ) : Official capacity is understated, with thousands of seats not used for baseball, most notably for Tropicana Field, where attendance has generally been very low. This was also done in Oakland Coliseum from 2006 until mid-April 2017. ( - ) : Official capacity at Dodger Stadium has probably always been overstated.	Very high ( > 2%)	.	Very high ( > 80%)
Very low ( < -2%)	Very low ( < -40%)

SOURCES: World Almanac and Book of Facts 2012 and 2022; U.S. Bureau of the Census; Forbes Magazine Sportsmoney Baseball special issue 2008; baseball-reference.com; ESPN

Attendance benchmark comparisons

Annual attendance	4,500,000	4,000,000	3,500,000	3,000,000	2,500,000	2,000,000	1,500,000	1,000,000
Corresponding average attendance per game (81 games)	55,555	49,382	43,209	37,037	30,864	24,691	18,518	12,345

Baseball cities: urban population, pro sports franchises, stadium capacity, and attendance trends

Background

Attendance benchmark comparisons

Baseball cities:
urban population,
pro sports franchises,
stadium capacity,
and attendance trends