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November 8, 2016 [LINK / comment]
Election 2016: last-minute forecasts
For the record, I have made my own forecast of the election results, showing Trump doing better than most people expect, but not enough to win. Reports of a surge in Latino voting in Florida would seem to doom his chances there, but unlike recent elections, I think it will all come down to Michigan. If Trump capitalizes on discontent with global trade and de-industrialization, it could just put him over the top. He made a joke the other day that probably resonates with some people: "It used to be we made automobiles in Michigan and you couldn't drink the water in Mexico; now it's the other way around." That's referring to the water system crisis in Flint, Michigan.
Anyway, Hillary Clinton will probably win Virginia, Pennsylvania, and might win North Carolina. I have the latter in Trump's column, but it will be close. Likewise, Texas will be closer than in recent elections, but I expect Trump to still finish with a lead of about 5 percent.
As for the popular vote, I'm guessing Mrs. Clinton will get about 48%, with Mr. Trump getting 43%, Gary Johnson (Libertarian) getting 5%, Jill Stein (Green) getting 2%, and Evan McMullin (Independent) also getting 2%. If Johnson reaches the 5% threshhold, the Libertarian Party will qualify for matching funds in the next presidential election, which is ironic for a party that preaches a sharply limited role for the government.
My forecast of the 2016 presidential election.
Here in Virginia, there are some close races for the House of Representatives. Bob Goodlatte will win easily here in the 6th District once again, but Kai Degner waged an effective campaign, capitalizing on the pipeline issue. In the 10th District (northern Virginia), Barbara Comstock is fighting a tough battle for survival, and if she loses, Trump will be to blame. The most interesting race is in the 5th District, where State Senator Tom Garrett (GOP) has a small lead over Jane Dittmar. That campaign has been nasty.
Montage of 2016 campaign signs, around Staunton.
I predict that the Republicans will hold on to a bare 51-49 lead in the Senate. [It is currently 54-46, including two independents on the Democratic side.] Republicans Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and in Roy Blunt in Missouri (both incumbents) are two key tossups.
In the House of Representatives, I expect the Democrats to make a smaller gain, going from the current 247-188 lead [in favor of the Republicans] to about 230-205. I have a hunch that many voters who cringe at the idea of voting for Hillary but do so as the lesser of two evils will compensate for that choice but picking the Republican candidate for the House. The average voter, although often susceptible to being fooled, is wiser than many people think, and they probably like the idea of keeping a balance between the two parties.
FBI clears Hillary
When I wrote my Sunday blog post, I was not yet aware that the FBI had already cleared Hillary Clinton. I'm not surprised, and frankly I'm glad that this potential complicating factor was removed (or at least minimized) prior to the election. But what about people who voted early? Well, that's another problem...
Posted (or last updated or commented upon): 08 Nov 2016, 8: 57 PM
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Hits on this page (single blog post) since July 2, 2007:
Culture & Travel
Science & Technology
This (or that) year's
January 10, 2016 ~ Cooperstown calls Griffey, Piazza
January 17, 2016 ~ ABC field trip to Highland (& Bath!) County
January 21, 2016 ~ R.I.P. Glenn Frey
January 26, 2016 ~ Sweet Briar College is saved!
January 31, 2016 ~ Presidential campaign begins
February 6, 2016 ~ Fall bird migration season 2015
February 20, 2016 ~ Life bird: Virginia Rail!
February 21, 2016 ~ 2016 primaries: populists propel polarization
March 10, 2016 ~ Yes, another Wrigley Field update!
March 26, 2016 ~ Trump triumphs, Republican Party implodes
April 4, 2016 ~ Opening Day(s) in America, 2016! (& Sportsman's Park update)
April 18, 2016 ~ R.I.P. Alan L. Clem
April 21, 2016 ~ Flying out to So. Dak. (& back)
April 30, 2016 ~ Trump & Clinton take commanding leads
April 30, 2016 ~ Migration season reaches peak
May 7, 2016 ~ Trump secures victory; Sanders fights on
May 21, 2016 ~ ABC field trip to Reddish Knob
June 7, 2016 ~ ABC field trip to Highland County
June 9, 2016 ~ FOD [first-of-decade] Prothonotary Warblers!
June 14, 2016 ~ Birding on Hite Hollow Road
June 16, 2016 ~ Holy $#!+ -- Nationals win big showdown with Cubs
July 1, 2016 ~ Nationals sweep the Mets, widen NL East lead
July 3, 2016 ~ Kentucky Warblers, and more!
July 8, 2016 ~ Soras breeding in the Valley!
July 13, 2016 ~ Redistricting reform movement is growing
July 16, 2016 ~ The Nationals' starting rotation
August 5, 2016 ~ New page: Stadium profiles!
August 7, 2016 ~ Magical mushroom tour*
September 7, 2016 ~ To the northeast: Baseball road trip, 2016
September 18, 2016 ~ East by Northeast: Big city scenery travelogue
September 25, 2016 ~ Nationals win National League East Division
September 27, 2016 ~ Lucky! 13 warblers on Betsy Bell Hill
October 2, 2016 ~ Nationals' regular season ends on a high note
October 5, 2016 ~ Shenandoah National Park birding (II)
October 14, 2016 ~ Nationals flinch, Dodgers advance to NLCS
October 14, 2016 ~ Shenandoah National Park getaway
October 16, 2016 ~ World War II aircraft show (II)
October 25, 2016 ~ Holy cow: Cubs beat Dodgers, win NL pennant!
November 3, 2016 ~ The Cubs win the World Series!!!
November 4, 2016 ~ New month arrives, & new birds too
November 6, 2016 ~ Campaign 2016 grinds to a nasty, ugly end
Blog highlights have been compiled for the years 2010-2012 thus far, and eventually will be compiled for earlier years, back to 2002.
The "home made" blog organization system that I created was instituted on November 1, 2004, followed by several functional enhancements in subsequent years. I make no more than one blog post per day on any one category, so some posts may cover multiple news items or issues. Blog posts appear in the following (reverse alphabetical) order, which may differ from the chronological order in which the posts were originally made:
- Wild birds (LAST)
- Science & Technology
- Latin America
- Culture & Travel
- Canaries ("Home birds")
- Baseball (FIRST)
Also see: My blog practices.
Blog errata (Nobody's perfect.)