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August 12, 2006 [LINK]
U.N. resolution: what effect?
I haven't been paying much attention to the diplomatic front in this crisis, and the haggling with France and other Security Council members only reinforces the perception that the "global community" lacks the will to confront the problem of Islamic extremism. Condoleeza Rice has not been accorded much respect from the warring parties during her efforts to mediate, it would seem. Likewise, it was clear that the U.N. Security Council would not pass a resolution until Israel had launched a full-scale invasion of
Lebanon Hezbolland, which finally came to pass in the last couple days. Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a cease fire, which is supposed to take effect on Monday. We'll see. (BBC) Lebanon's prime minister Fouad Siniora wrote an editorial in the Washington Post demanding that "Israel must be made to respect international law," but the sad truth is that the internal chaos in Lebanon poses a mortal threat to Israel, and prioritizing respect for international law in these circumstances would be suicidal.
Olmert, who hesitates, is lost
It has been puzzling why Israel has been so timid with the use of its ground forces even as its air forces are pulverizing large portions of Lebanon. It doesn't make much strategic sense, and the foot-dragging seems to be rooted in domestic politics. Donald Sensing has been following these developments very closely, and predicts that Ehud Olmert will resign as prime minister very soon:
The slapdash, haphazard and wholly indecisive way he has handled the Hezbollah war has doomed his chances of remaining in office past the end of this year, probably before then and maybe very soon. Olmert entered office with no national-security credentials and clearly still has none. Israeli editorialists all around are already calling for him to go.
Olmert's weak leadership in this crisis puts at risk the strong consensus among nearly all Israelis -- hawks and doves, the religious ones and secularists alike -- that Hezbollah must be decisively defeated.
On August 4 I wrote that "at least 30,000 men" were already inside Lebanon, based on the number of brigades that had been deployed there (eight). Apparently, however, there were only elements of eight Israeli brigades, because the total number of troops at that time was only about 10,000. The discrepancy may be part of deliberate disinformation, or perhaps the confusion on the part of the Israeli military command, which is apparently quite angry with Olmert. The above-cited BBC story reports that 30,000 Israeli soldiers are in Lebanon now.
Posted (or last updated or commented upon): 13 Aug 2006, 12: 12 AM
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January 7, 2006 ~ DeLay gives up majority leader post
January 12, 2006 ~ Alito withstands Dems' "torture"
January 16, 2006 ~ Michelle Bachelet wins in Chile
January 19, 2006 ~ Views on Iran's nuclear ambitions
January 24, 2006 ~ Fallout from Canada's election
January 31, 2006 ~ Second (& third) thoughts on Iran
February 1, 2006 ~ The State of the Union, 2006
February 8, 2006 ~ D.C. Council votes "yes," but...
February 18, 2006 ~ Checks and balances in wartime
February 22, 2006 ~
Neocons & Neolibs: chastened alike
February 28, 2006 ~
The Dubai Ports World uproar
March 14, 2006 ~ New D.C. baseball stadium unveiled
March 24, 2006 ~ In the footsteps of France?
April 7, 2006 ~ Immigration compromise fails
May 16, 2006 ~ Bush militarizes Mexican border
June 6, 2006 ~ Alan Garcia triumphs, once again
June 9, 2006 ~
Zarqawi: The death of a terrorist
July 3, 2006 ~
Election in Mexico: too close to call
July 5, 2006 ~ North Korea goes ballistic
July 28, 2006 ~ Garcia prepares to lead Peru, again
August 4, 2006 ~ Israel invades Hezbolland
September 6, 2006 ~ "Crunchy conservatives": for real?
September 25, 2006 ~ Nationalists thwart conservation
October 3, 2006 ~ Nationals: Year in review
October 29, 2006 ~ Virginia's marriage amendment
November 7, 2006 ~ The people render their verdict
November 8, 2006 ~ Republicans lose big time
November 9, 2006 ~ Allen concedes / Election post-mortem
November 13, 2006 ~ Toward consensus on Iraq?
December 1, 2006 ~ Realism and our goals in Iraq
December 6, 2006 ~ Latin America & U.S. trade policy
December 8, 2006 ~ Iraq Study Group reports
December 22, 2006 ~ Yuletide political roundup
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The "home made" blog organization system that I created was instituted on November 1, 2004, followed by several functional enhancements in subsequent years. I make no more than one blog post per day on any one category, so some posts may cover multiple news items or issues. Blog posts appear in the following (reverse alphabetical) order, which may differ from the chronological order in which the posts were originally made:
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