April 8, 2006 [LINK]

It's a three-way race in Peru

As voters are about to begin Phase One of the presidential elections tomorrow, the latest polls indicate that radical populist Ollanta Humala has lost considerable support, as people start to take seriously the extreme rhetoric he and his brother Antauro have been spouting. Mainstream populist and former president Alan Garcia (of APRA) has pulled some support from Humala, while conservative Lourdes Flores Nano is either in the lead or close to it. I don't recall another election in Peruvian history with such an even three-way split. [2001!] So now the real question is not who will win the greatest number of votes, but who will finish third and be eliminated. If Garcia overtakes Flores in the race to see who will make it to the next round, I would expect a massive sell-off by investors in Peru, as all hope for future stability and development would be lost. CNN.com