March 21, 2003 [LINK]

Initial situation and prospects

This new war -- "Operation Iraqi Freedom" -- bears many similarities to the 1991 war known as "Desert Storm" in terms of reliance on high-tech smart weapons, but there are also major differences. For one thing, the ground offensive has already begun, within 24 hours of the commencement of aerial bombardment, whereas in 1991 the Army and Marines did not go forward until Iraqi forces had been pummeled by air attacks for five weeks. In part, that reflects the much lower degree of diplomatic support for the U.S. position this time; without the official seal of U.N. approval, world opinion will be much less patient than was the case during Desert Storm. (It will also be much less forgiving of "collateral damage.") The U.S. military strategy appears at first glance to be quite blunt and obvious -- to roll over Iraqi resistance as quickly as possible -- but it is actually designed to avoid bloody combat by creating an air of invincibility that will hopefully induce Iraqi leaders to defect and lay down their arms. Above all, the political objectives are much grander than in 1991: to forcibly depose a hostile dictatorial regime so as to remove a key sanctuary for terrorists and political extremists, and possibly to encourage a move toward a more liberal democratic form of politics throughout the Middle East.

Being located so close to Kuwait, the city of Basra is the obvious initial target for Allied forces. Its liberation is intended to demonstrate the welcoming attitude of Iraqi people, but the fact that its people are of the oppressed Shiite minority means that it cannot be a reliable gauge of overall Iraqi sentiment. It is also important as a center of petroleum production. Likewise, there are hundreds of oil wells in the northern area around Mosul and Kirkuk, which happens to be where the Kurdish minority lives. The Kurds have had a autonomous zone for the past few years, and U.S. military officers are working with Kurdish militia units to open a second front in the north. The U.S. 4th Infantry Division was supposed to enter northern Iraq via Turkey, but the Turkish parliament turned down the U.S. offer of $6 billion in compensatory aid.

The main question is how aggressively will U.S. airborne forces be employed. The 101st Airborne Division, which uses helicopters, will probably be the spearhead of the invasion, seizing key bridges over the Euphrates River on the way to Baghdad. The two airborne brigades, which use parachutes, may be sent to the northern front or perhaps to the gates of Baghdad itself. Teams of U.S. Special Forces are already operating throughout Iraq, and they may be used to take control of airfields to facilitate rapid insertion of airborne units. Under ideal conditions, U.S. mechanized forces can advance at a speed of over 10 miles per hour, covering up to 50 miles per day. It is almost 300 miles from Kuwait to Baghdad, however, and keeping those gas-guzzling tanks and miscellaneous vehicles fueled over such a long distance from the base will be a huge logistical feat. Iraqi use of scorched-earth tactics (some oil wells have already been set on fire) and/or chemical weapons would delay the U.S. advance by a day or two. Once they reach Baghdad, if the elite Iraqi Republican Guard forces haven't collapsed by then, the campaign will assume a more political, cloak-and-dagger aspect. The U.S. Army desperately wants to avoid the worst-case scenario of large-scale street combat like Stalingrad in World War II, so they will put greater emphasis on psychological operations. The attempt to capture Saddam Hussein might end up looking a lot like the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, when Manuel Noriega evaded capture for several days by taking refuge in a church.

So how long will the whole campaign take, and how high will the casualties be? I'm guessing three weeks *, with about 500 Allied combat deaths altogether. Back in 1991, I expected only a few days of bombardment before the land war began, and I expected the ground campaign to last about a week; it turned out to be only four days. I expected about a thousand Allied combat deaths in 1991, when the actual total turned out to be under 300. When you see all the hysterical protesters marching in the streets and warning of Apocalypse, don't forget that as the ground war phase of Desert Storm began, many people were in a total panic, fearing that we would lose ten or twenty thousand soldiers.

The Washington Post published an excellent full-page map that shows in detail the locations of all major military units in Iraq and Kuwait.

* [bold face added on April 9]