March 13, 2003 [LINK]

[Stadiums and baserunning success]

Dave Studenmund made an interesting statistical analysis in baseballprimer.com of the effect of each baseball stadium on baserunning success, as measured by how often the runner on first base made it to third or home when the batter hit a single, then calculating the difference between home games and away games. He found that the biggest advantages were at Turner Field (the Braves), the Ballpark at Arlington (the Rangers), Wrigley Field (the Cubs), Miller Park (the Brewers), and Jacobs Field (the Indians). In my view, this effect is probably strongest in stadiums with idiosyncratic outfield walls (distant, irregular, ivy-covered, etc.), which presumably give home-team runners a better chance to beat the throw from visiting outfielders who are less familiar with field conditions. The pattern doesn't seem to apply to Fenway Park, however.

Two new stadiums are slated to open next year: in San Diego and Philadelphia. Politicians in St. Louis and the Twin Cities are still haggling over public financing provisions for possible new stadiums, and the same goes for Washington D.C. and northern Virginia. Meanwhile, Miami, New York, Oakland seem to be years away from any new stadiums. For a complete rundown on upcoming stadium openings and construction projects, see Joe Mock's baseballparks.com Web site.