May 2002 [LINK / comment]

Latin America, May 2002

Venezuela

For the past few months, Venezuela has been experiencing increasing turmoil as opposition to the rather autocratic (though elected) President Hugo Chavez, a popular left-wing Army colonel who launched two failed coup attempts in 1992. On Friday April 12 it was reported in the mainstream press -- falsely, as it later discovered -- that Venezuelan Chavez had resigned. What happened was that he was arrested by military officers and held captive while a leading businessman, Pedro Carmona, was sworn in as "provisional president." The Bush administration at first seemed to support the coup, but after Chavez regained power, Ari Fleischer scrambled to explain the U.S. official stance. Since Venezuela is one of the biggest sources of U.S. petroleum imports, this may have critical implications for our economy AND for the "war on terrorism." From the late 1950s until the late 1980s, Venezuela was one of the most durable democracies in all of Latin America, thanks to prosperity from its petroleum exports. The critical mistake they made was keeping the oil industry in government's hand, thereby intensifying the political ramifications of fluctuations in world energy markets. During the 1980s oil prices declined and the state-supported middle class in Venezuela shrank, causing massive consternation.

Mexico

Pres. Fox warned that if Pres. Bush doesn't push trade, immigration, and other transborder issues, his reform agenda may collapse. A U.S. border patrol officer was shot, possibly by a Mexican Army soldier.

Bolivia

Ex-Pres. Hugo Banzer died of cancer. Enron Corp. obtained OPIC guarantee for a natural gas pipeline project in eastern Bolivia.